Computer Analysis Shows Kim Jong-un Has No Plan to Give up Nukes

  • By Kim Myong-song

    January 03, 2019 11:48

    Computer analysis of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's remarks and the political circumstances in Northeast Asia shows that he has not given up his policy of parallel development of nuclear weapons and the economy.

    Dankook University Institute of Policy Science, South and North Korean Development and Sejong Consultant Group analyzed Kim's nuclear strategy using text mining techniques and system dynamics theory.

    Text mining analyzes the frequency and significance of key words in big data and was used to forecast U.S. President Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 American presidential elections. System dynamics theory seeks to understand how different elements relate to one another.

    Researchers analyzed Kim's speech in March 2013 announcing the tandem policy, a Workers Party report from May 2016 and new economic policy announced at a party general assembly in April of 2018 and concluded that the regime is unwilling to scrap its nuclear weapons.

    The frequency of words reflecting plans to develop nuclear weapons, such as "nuclear deterrent" and "nuclear weapons," far outnumbered terms related to denuclearization, according to researchers.

    Words such as "strategic position," "nuclear disarmament" and "nuclear weapons possession" suggested that the objective remains to turn North Korea into a prosperous nuclear-armed state.

    In other words, Kim has no intention of giving up his nuclear weapons in exchange for economic benefits. The researchers said Kim has not given up on the twin goals and that the ultimate objective is to turn North Korea into a nuclear-armed state by 2020.

    Kim Kyu-il at Sejong Consultant Group said, "Analysis of Kim's comments shows many words used by nuclear-armed countries, and his objective appears to be nuclear weapons reduction rather than full denuclearization."

    Choi Kyung-hee, head of South and North Korean Development, said, "North Korea has been shown to be using nuclear weapons as a means to maintain internal order and justify Kim Jong-un's leadership. Nuclear weapons development played a major role in consolidating Kim's grip on power." 

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