Updated Apr.15,2009 10:26 KST

How to Deal with N.Korea's Increasing Provocation
The United Nations Security Council on Monday unanimously adopted a statement condemning North Korea's rocket launch and accusing Pyongyang of violating UN Resolution 1718. The Security Council said it would punish North Korea by reviving sanctions according to Resolution 1718 passed in 2006 but not implemented while there was progress in the six-country talks. In protest, North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency on Tuesday, "The DPRK [North Korea] will never participate in such six-party talks." North Korea added it would reprocess the spent fuel rods that were extracted from the nuclear reactor in Yongbyon, pursue the construction of a light water reactor and continue its long-range rocket launches. The communist country has responded to criticism by restarting its nuclear program, which had been frozen for the past two years under the framework of the six-country talks.

South Korea's presidential spokesman Lee Dong-kwan said on Tuesday that the Lee Myung-bak administration would soon declare its full participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), a U.S.-led initiative that aims to interdict the transfer of banned weapons and related technology. Launched in 2003, a total of 94 countries are taking part in the PSI, in order to cooperatively prevent the spread of nuclear and missile technology to rogue states or international terrorists. But South Korea has withheld from participating in the initiative, mindful of North Korea's protest. The North previously claimed that it would consider South Korea's participation in the PSI a "declaration of war."

Over the past few months, South Korea, the United States and Japan have vowed to address North Korea's rocket launch at the UN Security Council, while North Korea has declared it would scuttle the six-party talks if the UN implements sanctions. The problem is whether the South Korean government has a step-by-step plan to respond to the crisis as it worsens. Once implemented, options such as UN Security Council sanctions and participating in the PSI quickly narrow the range of restraints against North Korea. It is obvious North Korea will ignore sanctions placed against it and proceed with further acts of provocation.

Following the Security Council's statement, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman said Beijing had opposed the implementation of sanctions. International pressure on North Korea can succeed only with the participation of China, which holds the lifeline that supports the North's leadership. That can only be possible if measures against North Korea are implemented at a level where China can participate openly -- or at least implicitly agree to them. But the diplomacy pursued by South Korea and the United States has stumbled at that stage. As a result, sanctions against North Korea are failing to change the country's attitude.

The South Korean government appears to consider North Korea¡¯s protest against Seoul's participation in the PSI and sanctions as expected rites of passage. But problems involving North Korea could escalate into a major national security crisis due to a simple misjudgment. South Korea's participation in the PSI carries the possibility of triggering a military confrontation, should the United States, Japan and other countries seek to halt a suspicious North Korea vessel in South Korean waters. If that happens, the government must have a preconceived plan of action on how it intends to deal with the situation according to different crisis scenarios.