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The long-range rocket North Korea launched on Sunday dropped into the Pacific Ocean after flying over 3,200 km, a little under half of the 7,000-8,000 km the South Korean and U.S. authorities anticipated. The satellite launch ended in failure, but what is important is not whether it was a satellite or a missile.
Seoul and Washington must instead pay attention to North Korea's rapidly developing long-range missile technology. The Taepodong-1 missile the North fired in 1998 flew 1,620 km and the Taepodong-2 missile in 2006 broke fizzled in 40 seconds. But over a decade, North Korea has nearly doubled its missile range from 1,620 km to over 3,200 km. Should the trend continue, Pyongyang would before long possess inter-continental ballistic missiles with a range long enough to reach America.
When it judged that its provocations were scorned by the international community in the past, North Korea attempted to recover them through other provocations. Following its failed missile test in 2006, Pyongyang demonstrated its strength by firing six Scud and Rodong missiles and tested a nuclear device in October that year. Thus the urgent task facing Seoul and Washington now is to prevent additional provocations from the North. It has already made a series of threats this year, including a rejection of the Northern Limit Line, the de facto marine border off the west coast.
To stop these provocations, the international community must take sanctions against the North. The UN Security Council discussed the issue on Sunday but failed to reach a conclusion. South Korea, the U.S. and Japan demanded sanctions, but China and Russia objected. Beijing keeps saying the countries involved should remain calm and exercise restraint. But will Beijing take such a laid-back attitude when South Korea and Japan develop nuclear weapons and missiles targeted at them?
China wants to become a world power comparable to America. It should keep in mind that by leaving Pyongyang's provocations unpunished, it will foster only suspicions about Chinese leadership in the international community.
North Korea depends on China for food and fuel, and the friendship treaty Pyongyang and Beijing signed in 1961 provides the last buttress for the North's security. If China does not prop up North Korea in security and the economy, it grinds to a halt. North Korea can be moved only if China is moved. Success or failure of South Korean and American North Korea policies depends on how they move China.
Noting that South Korea is restrained under an agreement with the U.S. not to exceed 300 km in its missile range, Prime Minister Han Sung-su told a National Assembly session on Monday it was high time that South Korea reviewed "if such a restriction is right." In 2001 Seoul agreed with Washington to limit the range of missiles to 300 km and the weight of warheads to 500 kg. Seoul accepted the restrictions assuming that Washington, in agreeing with Pyongyang on a missile moratorium, would persuade the North to join the international Missile Technology Control Regime.
But the missile moratorium has already been broken and the North has demonstrated rocket technology commanding over 3,000 km in range. With the premise of the Seoul-Washington missile agreement broken, we must review our own missile policy.
We have to consider calmly whether we consider the problem of the North's nuclear weapons and missiles as a practical threat to our existence and security. In a poll of 1,000 people across the country on Friday and Saturday, 55.4 percent of respondents saw the North's missile launch as aimed at "negotiations with foreign countries," 19.4 percent at the consolidation of the system, 16.6 percent at missile development, and 2.6 percent at space development. The ministry did not include the question whether the missile launch constitutes a threat to South Korea. If that is how the government feels, no wonder people aren't worried.
But North Korea is testing dangerous weapons of mass destruction on the Korean Peninsula. If even something small goes awry, South Korea will suffer most. We should not exaggerate the situation, but it's important to realize that the North's nuclear weapons and missiles are not the problem of others but squarely our own. Only when we see that the main concerned party is South Korea can we move toward resolving the problem.
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