Judging from the situation so far, the U.S. administration appears to have decided it would be difficult to take any measures against a North Korean missile launch other than discussing it with the UN Security Council. And the Security Council is unlikely to impose new sanctions on North Korea, so the most plausible outcome could be a low-level censure, such as a declaration by the host country of the council criticizing the launch.

This would be very disappointing for a large number of South Koreans, who had hoped the U.S. administration would either prevent the satellite launch by engaging in strong diplomatic efforts, or be followed by a concerted international move demonstrating the resolve not to condone such acts.

This would spread the view among both North and South Koreans, as well as the international community, that the U.S. has no magic formula either. Fundamentally, it would exacerbate confusion and suspicions over the Obama administration’s North Korea policy.

After meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi in Washington on Mar. 11, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the ultimate goal was to get rid of North Korea's nuclear program and added that the U.S. had many options to deal with a North Korean missile launch. Clinton said efforts would still be made to resume the six-party talks, which have been stalled since October 2007.

But the U.S. Defense Department appears to have a different view. Gates said Sunday the six-party talks had made no progress and that this was a source of significant concern. He also voiced skepticism about a purely diplomatic solution, saying he believes the success rate is higher when economic sanctions are used, whether they target North Korea or Iran.

As demonstrated by those contrasting comments, the broad framework of North Korea policy within the Obama administration has yet to be formulated clearly. The basic direction, a consultation system for North Korea affairs within the administration and a cooperative network with Congress, all remain unclear, while the State Department has yet to appoint an assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs. This is all happening while the Obama administration reviews North Korea policy.

As if it were catching the Obama administration off its guard, North Korea is seeking to up the ante by staging the so-called satellite launch, which is a ploy, according to Secretary Gates, to develop an inter-continental ballistic missile. With no significant leverage at its disposal, South Korea is simply sitting by with its eyes fixed on Washington.

This helplessness cannot continue indefinitely. Seoul and Washington need to hurry up and produce a set of basic principles and at least a rough blueprint of how they intend to deal with North Korea over next four years. If there is not enough time to do this at the Apr. 2 summit in London, they need to set up another meeting as soon as possible. If they fail to do this, there will be no end to North Korea's antics.