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South Korean and U.S. intelligence have confirmed that North Korea has set up a missile on its launch pad at the Musudan-ri test site in North Hamgyong Province. North Korea claims that the rocket will carry a "satellite" into orbit, but South Korean and U.S. officials believe the launch vehicle is actually a long-range, ballistic missile. It can be launched at any time once fueling, which takes three to four days, is completed. The countdown to the long-range missile launch has virtually begun, since North Korea has already informed the International Maritime Organization that it would launch the "satellite" between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m. during Apr. 4 to 8.
The South Korean government has dispatched its Aegis-class King Sejong the Great destroyer to the East Sea to track developments in conjunction with two U.S. naval Aegis vessels already there. Two Japanese Aegis vessels are also operating in the East Sea. Tokyo plans to convene a security council meeting on Friday to authorize the destruction of the North Korean ballistic missile, in accordance with Japan's self-defense law. If the North Korean rocket is confirmed to be a ballistic missile, Japan plans to intercept it with SM3 missiles. And if this fails, Japan intends to use its PAC3 missiles, based with its Self Defense Forces, to intercept it once it re-enters the atmosphere. North Korea has declared it would retaliate against such moves, ratcheting up tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
The South Korean government has shifted from efforts to resist the launch to formulating post-launch measures. South Korea's top nuclear envoy Wi Sung-lac is visiting Washington D.C. on Friday to discuss measures with U.S. government officials. Since February, when North Korea began preparing for its missile launch, South Korea and the U.S. have been engaged in diplomatic efforts to stop the launch. But they failed. Seoul was unable to take do anything since its communication channels with the North have been cut off, and the Obama administration does not seem to have a full understanding of the seriousness of the situation.
South Korea and the U.S. must use this crisis as an opportunity to revamp their cooperative system for dealing with North Korea and publicly announce what consequences the North stands to face if it pushes ahead with the missile launch. And diplomatic efforts must be made to get China and Russia to take part in this warning. The warning must be firm to be effective, and it must be made in good time to prevent the situation from worsening beyond control. One possibility is boosting sanctions as part of UN Security Council Resolution 1718 issued after North Korea¡¯s nuclear test in October 2006, so that the regime can feel the resolute determination of the international community.
Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Barack Obama, who are holding their first summit at the G20 meeting in London on Apr. 2, must issue a final warning to North Korea against a misjudgment. The entire world is watching what the leaders of South Korea and the U.S. will do in case the communist country pushes the button just as the two presidents meet.
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