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North Korea on Monday blocked the inter-Korean border, virtually detaining hundreds of South Koreans at the joint Kaesong Industrial Complex in protest against the ongoing South Korea-U.S. military drill. But the North reopened it just a day later and blocked it again on Friday. There is a great deal of speculation why the North is acting this way.
One expert says Pyongyang was taken by surprise by the unexpectedly serious reaction. Even media outlets that are usually friendly to the North expressed concerns about the hundreds of South Korean who briefly became virtual prisoners in the joint Kaesong Industrial Complex. Having employed a strategy of attacking the Lee administration by sowing conflict between conservatives and progressives in the South, North Korea may have been perplexed by the development, he said.
Some experts see the developments from a longer perspective. North Korea has suffered withdrawal symptoms now that the Sunshine Policy of free aid and engagement has ended, so it upped the ante in an attempt to bring back the policy. The reasoning is that while Pyongyang has been increasing its threats, it is consistently calling for respect for the June 15, 2000 Joint Declaration and October 4, 2007 Summit Declaration, both of which specify massive aid to and investment in the North. In other words, it wants the "sunshine" to continue.
How serious are the withdrawal symptoms? The economic benefits the North enjoyed during the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations reached W8.38 trillion (US$1=W1,450), according to statistics the Grand National Party compiled from data provided by the government. The inter-Korean projects former president Roh Moo-hyun pledged in the October 4, 2007 declaration could cost W150 trillion if enforced.
Given that North Korea's gross national income was some W24 trillion in 2007, it is easy to see how valuable that money is. Pyongyang, while accepting the aid, manufactured nuclear weapons and missiles with which they can annihilate South Korea. "The North Korea policy of the former administrations heavily tilted toward exchanges and cooperation has planted the perception among the North Koreans that South Korea holds not sticks but only carrots no matter what the North does," says Prof. Nam Sung-wook of Korea University. "As a consequence, North Korea has come to regard South Korea as no consideration in the process of decision making."
But the situation has changed since the Lee administration took office. Without yielding to North Korean demands, the administration has stuck to the principle of conducting economic cooperation only after the nuclear issue is resolved. Now North Korea even threatened South Korean civilians, so far regarded as the red line, in what some see as an extreme of brinkmanship. That the North has backed down within 30-odd hours, experts say, shows that this was the limit.
It would be too optimistic to hope that this marks a turning point, since the North is even now preparing to launch what many in the West believe is a long-range ballistic missile, and no one can say with confidence that there will be no military provocations on land, sea or air.
But the cards the North can play unless it risks self-destruction have all but been exhausted. The Barack Obama administration is unlikely to bring about the change in situation the North seems to have been hoping for. North Korea stands at a crossroads, where it either continues its futile brinksmanship or returns to normal inter-Korean relations once it has woken from the withdrawal symptoms.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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