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There has been both pessimism and optimism about the future of the U.S. In terms of population, however, the country's outlook is brighter than any other developed country. The total number of babies delivered per U.S. woman is 2.1, the highest among all developed nations. Thanks largely to its birthrate, the population of the U.S. is expected to continue increasing, from 300 million in 2005 to 419 million in 2050. The rise in population implies the possibility of economic growth.
Korea's birthrate is just 1.2 -- only Hong Kong's is lower worldwide. Based on this figure, the Korean population is expected to start decreasing in 2018. If the trend continues, the nation's population will shrink to a mere 1.4 million by 2200. Japan's birthrate is 1.3, slightly higher than Korea's but still low enough to mean that country's population has been decreasing since 2005. From its peak in 2005 of 128 million, Japan's population will dwindle to 99 million, with 40 percent being senior citizens. Some believe the population will have shrunk by half in 100 years.
A low birthrate and a decreasing population pose threats to the very existence of a nation by reducing its economic and social vitality and increasing fiscal deficits with senior citizens' higher medical and welfare costs. Japan, which has the world's most competitive manufacturing industry and a foreign reserve of over US$1 trillion, fell into a 10-year-long recession because of its low birthrate. The prevalent concern was that the nation would soon have a population comprised largely of the elderly. People tightened their budgets in preparation for their sunset years, causing a contraction in national consumption, and the vicious cycle continued.
The secret behind the U.S.'s ability to deal with the double blows of a low birthrate and an aging society is immigration. Considered by many the land of dreams, the country has absorbed talent from all over the world. The birthrate among its white middle-class is similar to those of other developed nations, but by accepting immigrants from developing countries with high birthrates, the U.S. has continued to increase its population.
Some developed nations, including Japan, have passed measures to encourage pregnancy, such as maternity subsidies and medical aid, but these efforts have fallen short. In a strong economy, many career-oriented women may choose not to have children. Some experts argue that tough educational environments and poor childcare facilities are the main reasons for low birthrates, but this argument may not fully explain the situation. Germany has an excellent system of public education and childcare, yet has a birth rate of just 1.4.
Therefore, developed nations are looking at immigration, as well as measures aimed at encouraging pregnancy, to remedy their low birthrates. Longstanding resistance to immigration, however, cannot be ignored. Many nations have experienced significant problems because of the belief that immigrants take jobs away from native citizens. Korea, which does not even have a decent Chinatown, still harbors strong barriers against immigration. Fortunately, with the growing number of international marriages, the number of multicultural households has been sharply increasing, gradually changing the nation's perception of immigrants, and measures to help non-natives are now being considered.
Helping multicultural households and foreign laborers supports the core competitiveness that Korea needs for a better future. Local governments in areas with shrinking populations are working desperately to attract people. Very soon there will be competition among nations to attract more immigrants. Those that accept diversity will win the battle.
By Chosun Ilbo columnist Cha Hak-bong
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