Ferguson gave his opinion by using the term "Great Recession" instead of "Great Depression." "It won't produce as steep a fall in American output as the Depression did, but it may prove to be as prolonged," he said. "The depression that began in August 1929 did not hit its nadir until 43 months later. The one that started in October 1873 was shallower but lasted 65 months. If the economy were to keep shrinking for that long, we wouldn't start coming out of this until after May 2013."

Roubini, a renowned economic pessimist, predicted the recession will last until the end of the year at least -- or as long as 24 months. He said, "Even if the gross domestic product grows in 2010, it is likely to be no higher than 1 percent. And at that rate, with unemployment rising toward 10 percent, we will still be stuck in a recession."

Steven Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, warned against hasty expectations about an economic recovery. He said, "After the unusually steep declines in the economy, a statistical rebound in the second half of 2009 would hardly be shocking. It could be driven by the inventory cycle. Or it might reflect the first digs of the stimulus package's 'shovel-ready' projects. But any such whiffs of growth are likely to herald a false dawn." He added, "It looks to me as if this recession won't end until late 2010 or early 2011."

By contrast, Alan Blinder, a professor at Princeton University and a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, predicted that "growth will return in the fourth quarter of this year." Schmidt was also optimistic, saying, "And the good news is that Congress and the president are pressing ahead in the knowledge that to stand still is no solution at all."

(englishnews@chosun.com )