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2009 will be the year China begins to flex its military muscle overseas while the United States encounters more obstacles in its "war on terror" in Afghanistan and elsewhere as allies cut back on military spending amid the global economic crisis. Russia remains a paper tiger, while Iran will be capable of producing a nuclear weapon before the end of this year.
Those predictions come from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies' annual assessment of global military power, titled "Military Balance 2009" and released Tuesday.
¡ß The People's Liberation Army on the Move
Despite the impact of the crisis, China has announced it will boost military spending this year by 17.6 percent to $57.2 billion (around W79 trillion). But the IISS says overall China's actual military expenditure would be up to 50 percent higher than the official figure.
Nigel Inkster, a global risk analyst at IISS, said the People's Liberation Army dispatched three navy gunships last year to the Gulf of Aden to protect Chinese ships from Somali pirates, and this type of international activity will continue this year. Inkster was quoted by Reuters as saying, "We are probably close to the end if not already at the end of what one now calls the Deng Xiaoping doctrine of lying low."
¡ß U.S. Military Power Throttled by Global Recession
The IISS predicts the economic crisis will spell further trouble for the United States in its war on terror. NATO member countries are reluctant to send more troops to Afghanistan citing budget shortages. Already, Canada and the Netherlands have said they want to withdraw or reduce their troops in Afghanistan. The IISS says troop deployment levels and cost sharing problems could trigger friction between the U.S. and its allies.
¡ß Russia Remains a Paper Tiger
Despite victory in Georgia last year, Russia's recent military maneuvers are seen as largely symbolic gestures. Oksana Antonenko, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the institute, said the war with Georgia actually exposed Russia¡¯s weak intelligence-gathering capabilities in combat, and considerable time will be needed for the country's military to recover its former glory after 20 years of neglect.
The IISS believes Iran has the capability to produce a nuclear weapon within this year.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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