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Paul Kennedy
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Turmoil always begets winners and losers, and Korea could find itself among the losers in the global financial crisis, says Yale history professor Paul Kennedy. Kennedy predicted the decline of the U.S. in "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers," a book he published in 1988.
In an article for Bloomberg on Saturday, Kennedy singles out Germany, China, India, and northern European nations as winners amid the economic turmoil in 2009. But losers will include Russia, Venezuela and Iran, most of Africa and Latin America, and Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. The biggest loser, however, will be the U.S., he forecasts.
¡°Germany¡¯s combination of ultra-high-quality production, superb infrastructure and financial caution give it strengths,¡± Kennedy predicts. ¡°China will take hits, but that probably means an increase in economic growth of 5 percent or 6 percent, deriving more from domestic development, and less from cheap exports." India and Norway too are strong. "India will advance; none of its banks (so far) are on the Bear Stearns Cos. track," while "Norway will ride the storm on its still- massive currency reserve."
By contrast, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan likely to lose most in the coming year because they are "too wedded to exports, shipping, electronics."
Russia, Venezuela and Iran are also among the losers because they are too dependent on oil; and most of Africa and Latin America are too tied to commodities.
As for the U.S., ¡°President Barack Obama¡¯s America down and down," he says. "I simply don¡¯t see how the Treasury can print $1 trillion (approximately W1,324 trillion) to cover deficit spending." He added it is doubtful whether Asian nations will continue to buy American bonds this year.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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