Updated Dec.5,2008 12:58 KST

Can Exports Help Korea Beat Economic Crisis?
Korea¡¯s exports finally surpassed US$400 billion on Thursday. The achievement comes 44 years after Korea first broke the $100 million export mark on Nov. 30, 1964.

The latest export milestone carries huge significance for Korea. Firstly, Korean exports have grown at the fastest rate in the world, reaching $1 billion in 1971, $10 billion in 1977, $100 billion in 1995 and $300 billion in 2006. Where it has taken an average of 17.2 years for the exports of the world¡¯s 10 biggest economies to rise from $100 billion to $400 billion, Korea took just 13 years. This is the fastest rate of growth in the world with the exception of China, which made the achievement in nine years.

Second is the change in the structure of Korea¡¯s exports. At present, the main Korea¡¯s leading exports are petrochemical products, ships, mobile communications devices, semiconductors, automobiles, display devices and other high-tech ware, demonstrating Korea¡¯s technological prowess. It¡¯s a tremendous leap forward from the early 1960s, when Korea¡¯s leading exports were dried squid, gingko nuts and wigs.

Thirdly, Korea¡¯s exports are becoming more diversified. This year, for example, exports to developing countries and energy-rich nations, such as Latin America, the Middle East and Russia, have risen almost 30 percent. Korea exports to around 230 countries, and sells automobiles to 198 countries. One in every four mobile phones being used around the world is Korean.

This is a phenomenal achievement for a small country like Korea, the world¡¯s 26th most populous country and 108th largest.

But some issues need to be addressed. Firstly, export conditions are worsening. Since the U.S.-triggered financial crisis, we are seeing further stagnation in the world¡¯s leading economies. The U.S. economy is shrinking in the third quarter, while the International Monetary Fund says most advanced economies, including the U.S., Europe and Japan, will post minus economic growth next year. Our year-on export growth dropped to 8.5 percent in October and even fell to -18.3 percent in November. There are worries that this trend may continue next year.

Secondly, this year is expected to be the first time in 11 years that Korea has posted a trade deficit. While the main culprits behind this deficit are the soaring global prices of oil and raw materials, October¡¯s falling oil prices translated into current account surpluses for Korea. Yet Korea¡¯s trade deficit with Japan is expected to surpass $30 billion this year.

Thirdly, there are still uncertainties in terms of the exchange rate and other macroeconomic indicators. Last year the Korean won was the only currency to strengthen, burdening exporters. Domestic and foreign economic think-tanks projected the won would strengthen to W900 against the U.S. dollar, while some even forecast the W800 level. That prompted many businesses to purchase non-deliverable forward products, while others signed up for derivatives, such as knock-in-knock-out (KIKO) options. But the volatile forex market has seen the Korean currency fluctuate by W200 a day, making it difficult for businesses to plan, even in the short term.

Korea knows from its experience of 11 years ago, how harrowing it can be to overcome a financial crisis triggered by trade deficit. It is a matter worthy of praise for Korea, which imports more than W100 billion worth of energy each year and where exports accounts for 70 percent of its GDP, to achieve $400 billion in outbound shipments. But it is also time for us to pool our resources to overcome the obstacles that lie ahead.

The column was contributed by Lee Hee-beom, chairman of the Korea International Trade Association.