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South Korea and the United States, at the Security Consultative Meeting in Washington on Oct. 17, reportedly agreed to turn the conceptual plan dealing with sudden contingencies in North Korea into a proper operational plan. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, noting that the current scheme has many shortcomings, reportedly told the meeting that the U.S. is ready to supply to South Korea with the fighting power necessary for implementing it.
The plan is designed to cope with sudden contingencies in the North like a civil war or a death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. Conplan 5029 calls for Seoul and Washington for possible scenarios such as the capture of weapons of mass destruction like nuclear missiles by a competing force in the North, a massive exodus of refugees, a collapse of the state from an enormous natural disaster, and a large number of South Koreans being taken hostage in the Kaesong Industrial Complex or the Mt. Kumgang tourism resort. These scenarios could confront us abruptly at any time. Should one or more happen in series, South Korea would face a real national emergency.
Emergencies in North Korea might not be far off. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso on Tuesday said his government secured information that Kim Jong-il is hospitalized, and that the situation is "not good." Though our government denies it for now, uncertainties in the regime are growing with every day that Kim Jong-il is not seen in public. That is why an operational plan is needed.
Former president Roh Moo-hyun proudly said earlier this month, "I rejected a U.S. proposal to develop Conplan 5029 into an operational planĦħ due to possible suspicions on the part of North Korea and China. That indicates he was not ashamed of meeting contingencies in the North unprepared.
The government must also hasten to map out steps to deal with economic repercussions, aid to North Korea and cooperation with our neighboring countries -- the U.S., China, Japan and Russia -- and international organizations like the UN.
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