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The most plausible scenario of change in North Korea amid rumors of leader Kim Jong-il¡¯s ill health is of Kim maintaining control from his sickbed or through a representative. South Korea¡¯s National Intelligence Service and others believe Kim will be unable to keep up the schedule himself and will depend on a key aide to rule his country. Where is North Korea headed?
¨ç Hardline default
Experts believe that if Kim rules from his sick bed for an extended period of time, chances are that North Korea¡¯s will turn hardline to keep the regime from collapsing. Prof. Ryu Gil-jae of Kyungnam University said Kim would weaken both physically and mentally, and this will make him favor a conservative line rather than trying new approaches. Aides from military backgrounds would push Kim in a hardline direction to protect their vested interests and maintain the regime, according to Lee Ki-dong, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy. Already signs can be seen in North Korea¡¯s moves to restore its main nuclear plant in Yongbyon, announcing last month it would halt nuclear disablement and on Monday demanding the removal of seals placed at the plant by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
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Thousands of North Koreans turn colored cards to form the words "Long Live the Fatherland of the Great Leader" during a "mass games" performance at a stadium in Pyongyang last Friday. /AP
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¨è Strengthened internal control
Experts speculate the regime will tighten internal control as it braces for potential unrest due to a weakening of Kim¡¯s direct grip on power. One sign comes from accounts of North Korean defectors that regime has begun confiscating personal phones and checking the identities of people making long distance calls from Pyongyang.
¨é Internal power struggle
One North Korea expert at a state-run research institute said it has become difficult to rule out a power struggle behind the scenes, including the emergence of a successor, a subject which has been taboo until now. There may not be any immediate problems, but if Kim ends up ruling from his bed for an extended period, this could mark the beginning of an internal power struggle.
¨ê Increased reliance on China
If North Korea takes an increasingly hardline stance, it would become even more dependent on China, some experts speculate. Yeo In-gon, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said North Korea already relies on China for 90 percent of its daily necessities and crude oil well, and its dependence is expected to grow if it faces tougher conditions both externally and internally.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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