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The Korea Meteorological Agency has been making wrong predictions for the four weekends since June 29, not for the first time inviting public distrust of the weather authority. The KMA at 11 p.m. on Friday predicted that rain would start in southern Korea on Saturday morning, spreading to the entire country by afternoon. But heavy rain started just three hours after the forecast, with 50 mm per hour drenching North Chungcheong Province from 2 a.m. Saturday. By 9 a.m., the province had more than 150 mm of rain.
A torrential rain warning was issued for most of the central part of Korea including Seoul and Gyeonggi Province. At 8:35 a.m., and not in the afternoon, Seoul already had 108.5 mm of rain, and Yangpeyong 97.5 mm, as against the KMA¡¯s forecast of 5-30 mm. Meanwhile, there was barely any rain in the southern part, where the KMA anticipated that it would rain from the morning.
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Busan¡¯s Yeongdo harbor is filled with boats after a storm advisory for southeastern parts of Korea on Sunday due to the influence of typhoon Kalmaegi./Yonhap
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The KMA repeated the performance on Saturday. At 11 p.m., it said effects of a weakened rain front wold help rainfall subdue in central Korea by Sunday morning. Within an hour of the forecast, rain started pouring down on Seoul. The KMA issued a torrential rain warning to parts of Gyeonggi and Gangwon provinces at 2:40 a.m. on Sunday.
The KMA and weather experts say the fault does not lie with the hardware: the second supercomputer at the KMA is a world-class model. Instead, the problem is with the software, a numerical weather prediction model. ¡°The software on the supercomputer is outdated, but there has been a lack of efforts to upgrade it for several years,¡± said a KMA official. The model currently used by the KMA was imported from Japan in 1991. Only this year is the KMA working on replacing the model. ¡°The test run of a new model brought from the U.K. showed great improvements in accuracy, so we knew that there was a problem with the software,¡± a KMA official said.
But some point to the quality of KMA staff as well, insisting that their judgment and expertise are below par. Research by an outside research company rated the aptitude of Korean weather forecasters at C+, compared to A in advanced countries.
Typhoon Kalmaegi destroyed rubble walls, killed several people and left one person missing on Sunday. Since Saturday, five people were killed and one person is missing.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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