Updated July.3,2008 10:43 KST

Kicking Korea While It's Down
Korea¡¯s economy, which grew 5.4 percent in the first half, will slow to 3.9 percent in the latter half of this year, while consumer prices are expected to rise 5.2 percent in the second half, compared to a 4.3 percent rise in the first, the central Bank of Korea says. In other words, economic conditions will get worse, making it tougher for Koreans to make a living.

In announcing its economic policies for the second half, the government lowered Korea¡¯s GDP growth forecast from an earlier 6 percent to 4.7 percent. It now projects consumer prices to rise up to 4.5 percent this year, compared to an earlier forecast of 3.3 percent. It raised the forecast current account deficit from around US$7 billion to around $10 billion.

And only 200,000 new jobs are expected to be created this year, compared to 280,000 last year. Corporate investment in facilities dropped during the April to May period. More and more young adults will find it tough to find jobs, while some ailing businesses may end up laying off workers. Korea posted a $5.7 billion trade deficit during the first half of this year. As a result, it is expected to post an annual trade deficit this year for the first time in 11 years.

Major economic indices, including private consumption, inventory levels and investments are all showing danger signs. Consumers are keeping their wallets shut, so products aren¡¯t being sold even if manufacturers produce them; inventory levels rose 13.2 percent in May. A total of 4,790 restaurants have closed down during the first five months of this year, while 13,928 others have closed temporarily. Corporate facilities investments fell during April to May. In short, this is a crisis.

The price of Dubai crude, which serves as a standard for the crude oil we import from the Middle East, cost $65.8 a barrel in June last year. Last month, it soared to $127.9, almost doubling in just a year. As a result, Korea¡¯s crude oil imports during the first half of this year dropped 1.2 percent compared to the same period last year, but the price the country paid rose 61 percent from $27 billion to $43.4 billion: Korea had to pay $16.4 billion more to import oil.

High oil prices translate directly into high consumer prices. Gasoline prices in Korea stood at W1,474 (US$1=W1,042) per liter last June, but rose 29 percent recently to W1,906. Diesel prices rose 66 percent over the same period from W1,149 to W1,906. As prices of petroleum products rise, prices of goods made based on such products have also risen, while transport costs also surged. This has been compounded by a rise in international grain prices. Out of the 5.5 percent rise in consumer prices in June, 2.52 percentage points was due to rises in oil and grain prices.

The economies of the United States, Japan, Europe and the entire global economy are suffering from low growth and high consumer prices. It is difficult for the government to deal with a situation where external shocks are to blame for an economic slowdown. The only solution is for the government, businesses and the public to share the burden and wait patiently until external conditions improve and work to better the economic fundamentals of the country.

But nobody here is paying attention to the tumultuous world economy, and it is difficult to detect worries over the reality of the Korean economy, which is drifting aimlessly against this global backdrop. It is also difficult to see the resolve and effort needed to find a way for the Korean economy to endure this hardship. Government officials, politicians, the public, labor unions and even the clergy are all buried deep in the U.S. beef problem, so that there is no sense of urgency even though we are experiencing what others are saying are worse difficulties than those encountered during the Asian financial crisis.

In difficult circumstances, the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions held a two-hour general strike on Wednesday demanding the government renegotiate a beef accord with the U.S. The beef issue has nothing to do with working conditions for laborers and cannot be used as a reason for talks with management. Even though they clearly know this, unionized workers launched an illegal strike. KCTU head Lee Sok-haeng said the umbrella labor group will intensify the general strike to a level that ¡°impacts production.¡± If ¡°government oppression¡± including the arrests of KCTU members continues, Lee said, the general strike will get uglier, leading to power outages and railway stoppages. The head of the KCTU is among the handful of people who are leading the country¡¯s economy, and this man has threatened to snuff out the life out of Korea when its economy is already in trouble.

The KCTU head said early this year his group would launch a major strike that would impact Korea¡¯s international credibility. If labor unions engage in politically motivated strikes, hurt production and bring down Korea¡¯s international credibility, then the country¡¯s economy will collapse, low-income citizens will suffer and workers will be forced out on the streets. There is no way the leader of Korea¡¯s largest labor union is oblivious to a fact that even an elementary school student knows. It may ensure that he keeps his high position, but it is simply a tragedy for Korea that a person like this, who cares only about his position at the risk of endangering the public¡¯s livelihood, wields so much influence over our economy. Korea is standing on the edge of a cliff.