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As expected, the National Assembly hearing that took place Tuesday and Wednesday to ratify the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement ended up being just a heated tit-for-tat over the opening of Korea's beef market. There was no discussion about measures to deal with sectors that will be impacted by the bilateral FTA. The 17th National Assembly will end at the close of this month. Only around 10 days remain. With the majority opposition party unwilling to bend on its demands that Seoul must renegotiate its beef deal with Washington, ratification of the FTA appears unlikely. If the ratification is handed over to the 18th National Assembly, then the entire process must start again from the presentation of the bill. The process will take months as parliamentary posts will have to be chosen again.
The Bush administration has yet to even present the FTA ratification bill to the U.S. Congress. That's because the administration is not confident that the Congress, dominated by Democrats, will agree to the deal. Korea must first ratify the trade pact so that the U.S. Congress and administration will feel the pressure. That will increase the chances of ratification.
But time is running out. After Aug. 2, when the U.S. Congress enters its summer recess, there will be no time to ratify the FTA before November's U.S. presidential election. In order to push the U.S. Congress to ratify the trade pact, Korea's 17th National Assembly must pass it first. There is no other option. But hopes are fading.
There may be opportunities after the U.S. presidential election, but if a candidate from the Democratic Party, which has voiced strong opposition to the FTA, enters the White House, then the deal may fall apart. The U.S. could also call for additional negotiations seeking more concessions from Korea. If that happens, then more heated debates could delay the FTA for years.
If the FTA is delayed too long, both Korea and the U.S. will suffer losses. Not only economic losses, but the restoration of the alliance between the two countries, as well as their credibility on the international stage will be harmed. It is simply frustrating to ask what the leaders and politicians of the two countries have been doing until now, forcing the situation to this point more than a year after the FTA was agreed upon by both countries.
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