But this general election looks different. The gap in strength between the United Democratic Party and the GNP is conspicuous. The GNP had a three- or four-to-one competition rate in the nomination of parliamentary candidates, but the UDP, being unable to recruit new faces except in the Honam region, the Jeolla Provinces, had to re-nominate most of its incumbent lawmakers. The two top UDP leaders, in a bid to let some fresh air into the contest in the metropolitan area, are running in two Seoul constituencies but lag behind their GNP counterparts.

With the gap in strength so wide, it doesn’t look like much of a fight. But GNP members are gripped by a sense of crisis -- not because of the external enemy that is the UDP, but because of an internal struggle that is making it difficult to distinguish friend from foe.

The influence of independents is great in the Gyeongsang Provinces, in effect the GNP's back yard. The latest Gallup poll for the Chosun Ilbo reveals that GNP-nominated candidates are ahead in only three out of a total of 12 districts, including one where party Chairman Kang Jae-sup, who has declared his withdrawal from the election, was to run. In four districts, they are behind independents or other party candidates; in five they are engaged in close contests.

In other districts including some in the metropolitan area, candidates supporting former GNP chairwoman Park Geun-hye are uniting under the banner of a pro-Park coalition. Though it is a “party” created abruptly and by underhand means, the group's approval rating rose to 5 percent instantly -- enough to produce three or so lawmakers by proportional representation if the general election were held right away. The chances are small that they will produce many successful candidates in Seoul and its vicinity, but they are likely to be a considerable burden to GNP candidates in marginal provincial districts.

In hindsight, the Dec.19 presidential election was an internal fight for the GNP as well. No ruling party presidential contestant could compete with candidate Lee Myung-bak. Such an imbalance in strength sent the minds of Lee camp's wandering, caused arrogance on the part of his associates and drove the party into a split. It opened a space for the twice-failed GNP presidential candidate Lee Hoi-chang to run yet again, as an independent. Lee Hoi-chang's independent candidacy, coupled with the criminal investigation of Lee Myung-bak over an investment scam, had an adverse effect on the latter’s lead.

Only a few months later, GNP members feel they are back in crisis. The cause is the conviction that a GNP nomination certificate is an automatic ticket for an election win. A few powerful GNP members, obsessed with that misperception, have wielded the sword of nomination according to their own political calculations and taste, ignoring the competitiveness of prospective candidates.

The GNP's internal contest should have come to a conclusion with its presidential primary in August last year. But now, there is even a power struggle within the pro-Lee camp, in addition to the repeat of strife between the Lee and Park camps. President Lee must diagnose the causes accurately and eliminate them. It's a task no less important than a general election victory. Otherwise, the chances are a third internal struggle will take place at the GNP general assembly in July. Unless the ruling party manages to break the brutal cycle, the Lee administration will end in failure.