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The strategic line-up of candidates in the Seoul metropolitan area, which determines the winner in the April 9 general election, is becoming very interesting indeed. According to a Gallup poll at the request of the Chosun Ilbo and SBS on 30 of the most contested constituencies in the capital region including Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, the main and opposition parties are competing neck and neck in 11 of them. The rest showed the Grand National Party leading in 11 constituencies and the United Democratic Party in eight.
In the presidential election, President Lee Myung-bak won an average of 51.3 percent of votes in those 30 constituencies, which was more than double the 25 percent support received by his rival. But in the latest Gallup survey, the GNP candidates had an average 35.9 percent support, while the United Democratic Party¡¯s candidates had 32.1 percent, narrowing the difference to just 3.8 points. The 30 constituencies that were the focus of the survey are where relatively established UDP candidates had lined up to be nominated early on in the race. As a result, it is difficult to say whether the latest support ratings reflect the sentiments of the entire capital. Yet when you compare the ratings to the days immediately following the presidential election, the ruling party is right in feeling the speed with which public sentiment shifts.
What¡¯s interesting is that support ratings for individual candidates are not the same as the support ratings enjoyed by political parties. In the 30 constituencies, the GNP enjoys a 42.6 percent support rating, while the UDP has just 17.8 percent. The difference between the two parties is 28.4 points. That¡¯s a slightly larger gap even than the difference in votes received by the presidential candidates of the two parties. The UDP has many veteran lawmakers in the race, and this could be contributing to greater recognition among voters than the fresh faces running for the GNP. But even if you consider that factor, the differences in support ratings for individual candidates and the political parties is too wide.
The capital region is where the number of National Assembly seats double or even triple by just a few percent lead in votes. During the last general election, the Uri Party won in Seoul by just 1.5 points, but ended up with 32 seats in the National Assembly, which was double that of the GNP. Voters in Seoul are more sensitive to trends in mainstream politics than any other region in the country.
If the choice voters made in the presidential election was a verdict on Roh Moo-hyun, then the upcoming general election is the public¡¯s verdict on the first steps of the new administration. The GNP needs to look back at what it has done during the three months since the presidential election, in order to find the cause of its drop in support rating, which used to be double that of the opposition party. And the UDP must look hard to find out why its support rating has fallen so low that its candidates must rely on their individual skills to barely survive.
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