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There are two points to watch in the April 9 general election. One is whether the Lee Myung-bak administration will win the majority in parliament, and the other whether the opposition United Democratic Party will be reborn as a healthy party. And the path the opposition will take is the more important issue for politics. If the former a matter of numbers, the latter touches on the essence of politics.
Logically speaking, the Dec.19 presidential election to an extent defined the nature of the opposition we will see. It was a rejection of the Roh Moo-hyun-style Left that denies the legitimacy of the Republic. It was a judgment that the irresponsible and inexperienced 386-generation of politicians can be trusted no longer. It was call to end a politics that fails to make people feel at ease and live in comfort.
Viewed from that perspective, what the public wants of the UDP in the general election can be summarized in a few Nos. Firstly, no rehash of the Uri Party. Secondly, the presidential election criticized the misrule of the Roh-style Left; it did not reject desirable liberal or leftwing politics. Thirdly, no to a slide back into regionalism. And the public wants the UDP to advance as a healthy force of restraint and grow as a reliable alternative.
Sohn Hak-kyu's opposition party must start right here. Perhaps Sohn was predestined to assume the task of rebuilding the UDP: he was, after all, selected as the right person to re-organize into the UDP after its defeat. He attracts the hope that he will be able to nudge today's opposition a few steps from the Left to the Center. When the Lee administration ran about in confusion over the screening of Cabinet members, he displayed his strategic brain by hitting the blind spot.
Sohn told an acquaintance he had received a great deal of encouragement saying that, now he was in charge of the party, people no longer had to worry about its course. The consensus is that Sohn, left-leaning though he is, did not belong to Roh-style Left and, though a liberal, he is not a radical. In addition, his family come from the Gyeonggi and Chungcheong Provinces, and his background as provincial governor and experience with the global economy are further assets.
The question is whether Sohn will be able to complete the task and continue leading the party. The public is delighted to see that he entrusted lawyer Park Jae-seung, a political outsider, with the screening of candidates for the National Assembly, and that Park carried out a major coup by wielding the scythe. This gives them hope that the opposition will survive.
But that could be a double-edge sword for Sohn. When the Kim Dae-jung-affiliated professional politicians who are denied their nomination by Park's sword refuse to go quietly, run in the elections as independents, and win, the UDP will have created a breach within the opposition. If he fails to muster an adequate victory in the general election, Sohn will be the sacrificial lamb. He will be under pressure to take responsibility regardless of the outcome of the election, and, if the DJ-affiliated politicians make a comeback, will confront a backlash within the party.
Sohn has neither roots nor base in the UDP today. If he cuts off the DJ line, a major root of the party, and vexes another, the pro-Roh 386ers, his post could prove to be built on sand. Perhaps the UDP factions made a tacit agreement to hoist Sohn as a shield until the general election is over, and then to get rid of him.
The task for the electorate in the April 9 general election, then, is to answer this question of principle: will they cast their votes based on candidates or choose a party? If they go by candidates, the party nominations mean little, and there is no reason for us to cheer the UDP's nomination process and encourage the nomination screening committee. If they go by parties, is it acceptable to go by party over candidate¡¯s capability? Will a party whose center is swayed by forces outside the party and whose leadership is torn asunder be able to play the role of an effective opposition? The April 9 general election will pose such questions more urgently than any past.
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