If one of the Democratic candidates who are negative about the FTA, such as Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, wins the U.S. presidential election late this year, the two countries will probably have to begin FTA talks all over again. The ratification has been cold-shouldered by political circles in Seoul, although chiefs and senior executives of business associations have been visiting the National Assembly and political parties since early this year to reiterate the importance of ratifying the deal.

◆ Business associations lobbying for ratification

Since the beginning of this year, senior executives of four major business associations -- the Federation of Korean Industries, the Korea International Trade Association, the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and the Korea Federation of Small Business -- have made it a rule to start their days with telephone conversations with ruling and opposition lawmakers. They have been lobbying the politicians to ratify the FTA bill, which was submitted to the house in September last year, in an extra house session in February, the last session of the 17th National Assembly.

The four major business associations, including the FKI, and the Korea Federation of Banks on Jan. 9 issued a statement calling for the bill's ratification. On Jan. 14, the heads of the associations, such as Cho Suk-rai, chairman of the FKI, visited the house speaker, the chairman of the house unification, foreign affairs, and trade committee, and leaders of ruling and opposition parties, asking them to ratify the bill in the extra session.

"Every day, we're trying to persuade senior members of ruling and opposition parties, including their chief policy makers, of the need to ratify the Korea-U.S. FTA bill," said Lee Yoon-ho, vice chairman of the FKI, looking frustrated as he spoke. "Lawmakers are not so enthusiastic probably due to the upcoming general election."

◆ Need to ratify the bill in February to pressure the U.S.

Business circles have been making all-out efforts to get the FTA bill ratified by the house in February. Unless it is ratified by that time, it seems highly likely that the bilateral trade pact, which was signed after years of mutual efforts, may be scrapped. With the U.S. presidential election scheduled for November, the U.S. Congress will effectively cease functioning during the Republican and Democratic national conventions slated for August. If the FTA is to be ratified by the end of July, the bill should be submitted to the U.S. Congress no later than late April, considering the 90-day period needed for both the House and the Senate to review it.

Moreover, in the U.S. it is the current administration alone that still remains enthusiastic about the FTA. Congress is presently led by the Democratic Party. If the bill is to be ratified by Congress while the Bush administration is still in office, the surest way would be for the National Assembly in Seoul to ratify it first in the extra session in February and then pressure the U.S. Congress to follow suit.

Korean business circles are concerned about the ongoing U.S. presidential election as Democratic candidates seem to be winning. If a candidate from the Democratic Party, which has traditionally advocated trade protectionism, wins the election, he or she will probably call for a renegotiation of the FTA, making the future of the trade deal murky.

Lee Seung-chul, vice president of the FKI, said, "The Korea-U.S. FTA will prove much more beneficial to us than to the U.S. Since it was achieved by the Roh administration, the United New Democratic Party should take the initiative in getting the bill ratified."

(englishnews@chosun.com )