|
Yes, history repeats itself. But the players change each time. A situation reminiscent of South Korea in its financial crisis 10 years ago is occurring now in the U.S. America is currently in dire financial trouble. By contrast, those countries that were in financial distress a decade ago are now the mighty ones. History is fascinating, and, it seems, fair to all.
"International Financial Institutions Ready to Profit in Korea". Exactly 10 years ago, on Jan. 17, 1998, the Chosun Ilbo carried an article under this headline on page three. The entire country was on the brink of bankruptcy. "Officials from global investment banks, including Merrill Lynch, are scouting out the Korean market," the article said. The article referred to the banks as "crocodiles."
Now, ten years on, one of those crocodiles has asked South Korea for help. Merrill Lynch decided to accept a US$2 billion injection from the Korea Investment Corp. The Wall Street Journal even used the term "bailout." The tables have been turned in the space of a decade.
During the East Asian financial crisis 10 years ago, the U.S. took the lead in helping South Korea. In the process, American financial firms made huge profits by taking advantage of our troubles. Now the U.S. is issuing an SOS distress call in the midst of a liquidity crisis, and South Korean financial institutions have surplus funds to invest.
The U.S. financial giants are mired in confusion. Large American banks that once dominated the international financial markets are now facing serious problems. Citigroup has suffered the biggest loss in its 196-year history. The stock prices of some American financial firms have been halved.
The financial troubles hitting the U.S. are rippling out into the global economy, and the South Korean economy also seems in for a hard blow. Whenever negative factors arise in the U.S., stock prices plummet and the financial market fluctuates over here. If the American economy is depressed then South Korea also loses, given its export-oriented industrial structure.
But the financial difficulties in the U.S. can also be an opportunity for us. To escape the liquidity crunch, American financial firms are putting their stocks up for sale at knockdown prices. At the moment there are no reliable money lenders to turn to in the U.S. That's why they're turning their eyes to the Middle East and Asia.
Petrodollar holders in the Middle East are upbeat. Warmly welcomed, they're enjoying a financial shopping spree in the U.S. Sovereign wealth funds from Singapore and China and Japanese banks have also joined in the affair.
Stocks of large American commercial and investment banks are going for bargain-basement prices. This phenomenon is reminiscent of South Korea a decade ago, when our financial firms had to sell their shares at steep discounts.
Now a South Korean financial institution, the KIC, has jumped on the bandwagon. Its investment in Merrill Lynch carries great significance. The KIC has made the country's first-ever investment in Wall Street, the mecca of the world's financial industry. From now on, as a shareholder in Merrill Lynch, the KIC has access to the financial giant's know-how and networks.
The conditions of the investment are also quite favorable to the KIC. Merrill Lynch's stocks will offer nine percent dividends a year -- more than double the market rate -- and be converted to common stocks two years and nine months after they are issued. Upon conversion, the KIC will hold a 3.1 percent stake in Merrill Lynch. In addition, the KIC purchased Merrill Lynch's shares for 10 percent less than their estimated value. Merrill Lynch clearly was in urgent need of funds. All credit goes to the KIC and the Ministry of Finance and Economy for accomplishing such a striking performance in the U.S.
Of course there's no guarantee that the KIC's investment will end successfully. But assuming the U.S. economy doesn't collapse, the investment will most likely prove profitable. In the current circumstances, American financial firms have no choice but to sell off their shares on the cheap. We know all too well how painful that is.
There are plenty of deals to be had in the U.S. We could buy insolvent overdue bonds at discount prices or purchase small regional banks. This is a golden opportunity for South Korea. When the situation in the U.S. improves the gate will surely slam shut again. But while the gate is open, we should do just what America's financial firms did to us 10 years ago.
I'm not suggesting that we enjoy the Schadenfreude, rather I'm saying we ought to make the most of an opportunity, just as the Middle East and Singapore are doing. Knowing that we can make money off of crocodiles makes the world a very interesting place.
This column was contributed by Park Jung-hoon from the Chosun Ilbo¡¯s Business News Desk.
|