The Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Institute of Peace predict China’s possible responses to emergencies in the North in a joint report entitled “Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor.” Posted on the website of the CSIS, the report is the fruit of the two think tanks’ discussions of North Korean affairs with Chinese experts in the Chinese cities of Beijing, Changchun and Yanji in June last year.

Written by Bonnie Glaser, Scott Snyder and John Park, the report says China’s foremost concern is to block a massive inflow of North Korean refugees when an emergency occurs in North Korea. Beijing wants official permission and close cooperation from the UN for closing down the border with North Korea, which will demand the assistance of Chinese military forces.

According to the report, China could send its military to take first steps needed to restore order in the North if the international community fails to properly and timely deal with emergencies there. Such measures include the provision of humanitarian aid to refugees, maintaining peace and order and controlling environmental pollution caused by the destruction of nuclear facilities near the border area between China and the North. Chinese experts believe North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is in bad health due to heart disease and diabetes and expect a collective leadership to elbow out Kim’s sons and take over power when he dies.

(englishnews@chosun.com )