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The final survey of voters before the presidential election shows Lee Myung-bak of the Grand National Party ahead of other candidates by a hefty margin. In the poll conducted by Gallup Korea for the Chosun Ilbo, the GNP candidate scored approval ratings of 45.4 percent, Chung Dong-young of the United New Democratic Party garnered 17.5 percent, and independent Lee Hoi-chang was fading with 13.6 percent.
The Creative Korea Party¡¯s Moon Kook-hyun came in fourth with 6.7 percent, trailed by the Democratic Labor Party¡¯s Kwon Young-ghil with 3.9 percent and the Democratic Party¡¯s Rhee In-je with 0.9 percent. Compared to the 2002 presidential election, voters seem less loyal to a certain candidate based on ideology and regional origin. Also, a larger number of voters express unwillingness to vote.
¨ç No generational and ideology-oriented support
In the 2002 presidential election, many voters in their 20s and 30s supported liberal candidate Roh Moo-hyun of the Democratic Party while older voters in their 50s and 60s overwhelmingly chose Lee Hoi-chang of the Grand National Party. But in this year¡¯s race, more than 40 percent of voters across all age groups support conservative candidates like GNP standard-bearer Lee Myung-bak and breakaway conservative Lee Hoi-chang. The progressive UNDP candidate Chung also garnered approval ratings between 14.5 percent and 21.6 percent in all age groups. And if ideological lines were clear five years ago, when Roh was the favorite candidate of progressive forces while Lee was the preferred candidate of conservative forces, this year, the conservative GNP candidate beats progressive candidates like the UNDP and CKP rivals even among progressive voters.
¨è Weakening regionalism
In the 2002 presidential election, the nation was divided into two factions, with the east supporting Lee and the west Roh. At the time, 67.7 percent of Gyeongsang Province voters, for example, supported Lee and 25.8 percent Roh, while in the Jeolla area, Roh scored an overwhelming 93.2 percent and Lee a mere 3.2 percent. Roh was also the most popular candidate in the metropolitan and Chungcheong areas.
But the latest survey shows Lee Myung-bak leading the pack in the capital area, Chungcheong, Gyeongsang, Gangwon Provinces and Jeju. UNDP candidate Chung won approval ratings of 51.3 percent only in the Jeolla area, the traditional stronghold of Kim Dae-jung. Independent Lee Hoi-chang was popular in Chungcheong and Gyeongsang Provinces.
¨éWeakening loyalty
In 2002, 13.6 percent of voters said that they could change their mind and support other candidate. But the number of drifting voters increased to 18.8 percent in the survey on Wednesday. Only 8.3 percent of respondents said that they were advised by friends and family members to support a specific candidate, down from 26.9 percent five years ago.
¨ê Growing unwillingness to vote
About 77 percent of respondents said they were determined to vote in Wednesday¡¯s survey, down from 88.7 percent in a similar Gallup poll five years ago. That suggests a far lower turnout this year than the 70.8 percent of 2002. Prof. Park Chan-wook of Seoul National University said generation- and ideology-oriented political divisions disappeared in this year¡¯s election, as younger voters in their 20s and 30s chose programmatic policies out of concern for job security. He added regionalism appears not to affect voters so much due to the ¡°vanishing political clout of the three old political leaders¡± -- Kim Dae-jung, Kim Young-sam and Kim Jong-pil.
The phone survey of 1,035 people aged 19 and older had a confidence level of 95 percent with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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