In any case, the members of the major league in the Dec. 19 presidential election are all known now the latecomer Lee Hoi-chang has announced his bid. In the order of approval ratings, they are Lee Myung-bak, Lee Hoi-chang and Chung Dong-young. In the nearby minor league, Moon Kook-hyun, Kwon Young-ghil, Rhee In-je and Sim Dae-pyong are sparring. Even allowing for some ups and downs in the remaining 40 days, chances are small that candidates will move from major league to minor or vice versa.

What is interesting is the attitude of Park Guen-hye, who is outside the ball park altogether. Her future course of action could be decisive in fixing the order of the major league -- but the ripple effects are anybody’s guess. If Park's followers deprive Lee Myung-bak of their support and shift it to Lee Hoi-chang, they have to accept the risk that Chung is elected. Park now enjoys some political influence thanks to her clean acceptance of her defeat in the Grand National Party primary. That is the biggest political asset for Park, who aspires to the presidency next time around. Even if high profits are offered, it's not easy for her to take a high-risk gamble that could squander it.

Park's influence is the most effective weapon in pressuring Lee Myung-bak, who has not yet forsaken his ambition for both presidential power and party leadership, into surrendering the latter. Such pressure won't seriously damage Park's image. The chances, then, are greater that Park will invest in the low-risk, medium-profit Lee Myung-bak option than the high-risk, high-profit Lee Hoi-chang alternative.

For Lee Hoi-chang to reverse the order in the major league, he has no choice but to depend on his own strength. The current approval ratings are 37.9 percent for Lee Myung-bak, 24 percent for Lee Hoi-chang and 13.9 percent for Chung Dong-young. Lee Hoi-chang's immediate goal is to approach par with Lee Myung-bak by snatching about 7 percent from him. He is expected to step up his offensive against Lee Myung-bak on the latter's alleged involvement in stock price-fixing and real estate scandals and North Korea policy. In the process, Lee Hoi-chang faces counter-attacks from the Lee Myung-bak camp over his betrayal of the GNP, the “truckloads of cash” scandal and breach of promise to retire from politics. If Lee Hoi-chang is to boost support, he has to broaden his base from the conservative right wing to the center. But the further he moves to the center, the weaker the loyalty and unity of his current base will get. That is Lee Hoi-chang's dilemma.

There may be additional variables. One is the explosive power of testimony to be given by Kim Kyung-jun, Lee Myung-bak's dubious ex-business partner, who is to return home in mid-November. If that proves more explosive than expected, undecided voters and Lee Myung-bak's base may both drift elsewhere, and the GNP candidate could be downgraded from "investment” to "speculation.” Should that happen, Park will be free. That is what Lee Hoi-chang is hoping for.

Another matter is the tendency of conservative voters to vote for the candidate most likely to win. In the event presidential candidates from the broad ruling camp are unified and support for Moon Kook-hyun (6.9 percent) and Rhee In-je (2 percent) is consolidated into support for Chung Dong-young, conservative voters' wish to rally votes will probably assert itself.

The winning margin in the presidential election, if the current trend continues, will be lower than Roh Tae-woo's 36.6 percent in 1987, when he confronted the three Kims (Kim Young-sam, Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong-pil), Kim Young-sam's 41.9 percent in 1992 when he defeated Kim Dae-jung and Chung Joo-young, and Kim Dae-jung's 40.3 percent in 1997, when he beat Lee Hoi-chang and Rhee In-je.

The destinies of the winner and loser will diverge between midnight on Dec. 19 and dawn on Dec. 20. It's difficult to bet on the winner because of Lee Hoi-chang's last-minute entry. But the destinies of the losers are interesting. The one with the biggest chance of political survival if he loses in the election is Chung Dong-young. He could be given credit for having inherited nothing but debts from the Roh Moo-hyun administration. But if either or both Lee Myung-bak and Lee Hoi-chang are defeated, that will mean certain death. One or both will be branded as squandering so much public investment. The only difference is that it will be a political death for one and the death of the reputation of the other.