Empty Cargo Trains Cross Border Between the Koreas The Tasks Left Undone by the Inter-Korean Summit Koreas Agree on Munsan-Kaesong Railway After 56 Years, Koreas Again Linked by Train Two Koreas Wrap Up Rail Talks

1. The nuclear problem President Roh said on Sept. 11 the North Korean nuclear impasse “is being resolved” and raising the subject at the summit would be like asking for a fight with the North Korean leader. It looks like Roh will not seriously raise the subject. The South Korean government appears to a certain degree have accepted North Korea’s determination to resolve the nuclear impasse through dialogue with the United States. But one South Korean government official said some form of agreement on the nuclear problem would be reached since it is a core issue a large majority of South Koreans hope will be discussed at the summit.

Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korea studies at Dongguk University, said the joint statement should contain “at least a clause that says the nuclear problem will be resolved through the six-country talks.” One problem with the expression of such an intent without being supported by concrete measures is that there is no guarantee North Korea will act on it.

President Roh Moo-hyun, third from right, and his wife Kwon Yang-sook, second from right, are bid farewell by South Korean children as they leave for North Korea at the Paju near the border village of the Panmunjom, north of Seoul on Tuesday./AP

2. Peace Framework Roh is focused on this subject. Measures to turn the demilitarized zone (DMZ) and the Northern Limit Line into “peace zones”, the formation of joint arms reduction committees to reduce the number of conventional weapons, and setting up a hotline between the leaders of the two countries are possible topics of discussion. But a formal ceasefire agreement must precede a peace framework, and that would involve the U.S. and China, which were major parties in the Korean War. Since it cannot be resolved through words between the two Koreas alone, experts say, the matter should be approached with caution.

3.Northern Limit Line This is an area where North Korea is expected to make strong demands. South Korean Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung has said the subject could be discussed if North Korea raises it, while Presidential Chief of Staff Moon Jae-in and other officials have already opened the possibility of renegotiating the NLL. The South Korean government is believed to have come up with alternative plans, such as proposing a joint fishing area or “peace zone.” But doing so would have ripple effects since it would mean tampering with a maritime border that has been in place under international agreements for more than half a century. There is a chance the issue will trigger division among South Koreans.

4.Economic cooperation The South Korean government believes peace and economic cooperation go hand in hand, seeing economic cooperation as an investment in eventual unification. The idea of building a second and even a third industrial complex in the North Korean cities of Haeju and Shinuiju has gained tremendous popularity within the South Korean government, and the Korea Land Corporation and some other state-run organizations produced blueprints for such projects. But it remains uncertain whether North Korea would allow them considering the impact they could have on the communist country’s ideological system.

But the most important problem is the procurement of necessary funds. A research institute under the Korea Land Corporation estimates that it would cost W10 trillion (US$1=W913) to develop Nampo, Haeju and Shinuiju. If Roh, who is at the end of his term, agrees to a mega deal with the North Korean leader that requires tax hikes or the issuance of government bonds, the next administration and younger generations of South Koreans would end up with the burden.

5. The ‘Arirang’ performance Roh is scheduled to attend the “Arirang” mass calisthenics show on Wednesday. The South Korean government says it has decided to attend the propaganda performance out of “respect” for the other side. Opponents say Seoul would be acknowledging the violent regime of North Korea, while proponents say there is no alternative but to attend. Mobilizing tens of thousands of primarily young people, the show has been criticized by the international community for abusing children. North Korean defectors who actually took part in the mass calisthenics have reported human rights violations during training.

6.Joint statement Whether a joint statement will be made and what that statement will say remains veiled in secrecy. Significant fallout is expected should the joint statement contain loaded and ambiguous terms such as “low-level federation”, a concept South Korea agreed to during the first summit in 2000. There is also the chance that North and South Korea may interpret the items of the joint statement from different angles. That’s especially true in the relationship between the inter-Korean summit and the six-country nuclear talks.

Unification Minister Lee has professed a cycle of goodwill between the two Koreas. The six-party talks that ended on Sept. 30, have led to an agreement whereby North Korea would disable its nuclear facilities and report its fissile materials by the end of this year. But that agreement essentially means just the closure of North Korea’s nuclear facilities. If the inter-Korean summit goes too far by producing a peace or unification announcement, then this would lead not only to controversy in South Korea but to conflict with the U.S.

7. The LCD TVs The South Korean government has decided to give North Korea six 52-inch LCD TVs, which could be viewed as strategic materials banned from export to North Korea. LCD TVs are also considered luxury products that are banned under UN Security Council 1718 following the communist country’s nuclear test last year. The South Korean government says it has not put luxury goods on the list of goods banned from export to North Korea, while LCD TVs are not strategic goods. But the U.S. is reportedly watching South Korea closely from the standpoint of abiding by the UN sanction.

(englishnews@chosun.com )