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Although the Korea Meteorological Administration has been operating one of the world's most advanced supercomputers since 2004, the accuracy of its weather forecasts is actually poorer than before. The reason is apparently the KMA's poor personnel structure and a weather forecast system that only rates a C- grade compared to advanced countries.
The KMA on Sunday submitted an analysis of weather advisories to Grand National Party lawmaker Kim Tae-hwan, a member of the National Assembly¡¯s Science, Technology, Information and Telecommunication Committee. The data show the accuracy of the KMA's advisories on four adverse weather conditions -- torrential rains, heavy snows, dust storms and typhoons -- from 2004 until 2006 at a mere 72.1 percent on average.
That is lower than the 79.4 percent accuracy it achieved in 2000 and 2003, before the No. 2 supercomputer went into use. In the case of summer torrential rains, the KMA is supposed to issue a heavy rain alert when more than 80 mm of rain is expected for 12 hours, and a heavy rain warning for more than 150 mm. But the accuracy of these advisories plummeted from 74.7 percent before the supercomputer to 66.3 percent since then. The accuracy of rain forecasts for the day and the following day also dropped from 85.1 percent in 2003 to 84.9 percent in 2006.
In August, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the KMA's supervisory agency, hired a weather technology consulting firm to check and evaluate the KMA's weather forecast ability. After a comprehensive check, the consulting firm reached the tentative conclusion that all such problems are due to the poor abilities of individual weather forecasters and the entire forecasting systems.
According to the firm's tentative conclusions obtained by the Chosun Ilbo, the supercomputer's performance is good but the numerical forecast model with which the KMA produces weather forecast data using the computer is outdated. The KMA's various forecasting systems and forecasters' professional expertise and judgment are far lower than those in advanced countries. The firm gave the KMA¡¯s numerical forecast model a C- (72 points out of a possible 100) and forecasters' abilities a C+.
"You need a system to analyze and correct wrong weather reports. But at the moment, the KMA doesn't even have a proper analysis and correction system," Dr. Hyun Jae-ho of the consulting firm, Technovation Partners, said. "To improve the accuracy of weather forecasts, it's necessary in the short term to improve computer programs, and to conduct comprehensive restructuring and innovation in the long term so that forecasters can improve." The consultation will be finished soon, and the final report is expected on Oct. 19.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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