During the upcoming talks, the participating nations will attempt to reach an agreement on concrete ways to disable North Korea's nuclear facilities and on targets of the declaration of its nuclear programs by the end of this year. Also on agenda are ways to strike North Korea from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism and to give 950,000 tons of heavy fuel oil to North Korea, in return.

Chief nuclear negotiators arrive in Beijing with the approach of the six-party talks to be held in Beijing on Thursday. Chun Yung-woo, South Korea's top negotiator for the six-party talks (center), arrives at Beijing Capital International Airport on Wednesday. North Korea's chief nuclear negotiator Kim Kye-gwan (right) is answering questions raised by reporters after arriving at the airport in Beijing on Tuesday. Before leaving for Beijing, chief U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill holds a press conference at Narita Airport in Japan on Tuesday. /Yonhap

The upcoming talks are being held both in favorable and unfavorable atmospheres. In terms of the favorable atmosphere, Washington and Pyongyang agreed in Geneva early this month on a large framework for the "disablement of the latter's nuclear facilities by the end of the year." Besides, North Korea may want to try to end the six-party talks in a favorable atmosphere as well, with only five days left before the inter-Korean summit slated for early October. As such, many experts predict that the participating nations will likely easily reach on agreement on the "disablement of the North's nuclear facilities by the end of the year."

But in the wake of harsh comments made unexpectedly over the past few days, nobody can predict what might happen. First, U.S. President George W. Bush denounced, in his speech at the UN General Assembly held on Tuesday, North Korea, alongside Belarus, Syria and Iran, as a "brutal regime." Some people are even citing the possibility of Washington and Pyongyang engaging in a conflict, considering that Western media outlets, including those in the U.S., are raising suspicions about North Korea's transfer of nuclear materials to Syria.

North Korea's denunciation of the U.S., including that by North Korean media outlets, also sounds ominous. Upon arrival in Beijing, Kim Kye-gwan, North Korea’s vice foreign minister, said, "Madmen have created rumors about our dealing with Syria on nuclear materials." All this shows the possibility that the upcoming six-party talks might collapse, depending upon how North Korea will react.

Nam Joo-hong, a political scientist at Kyonggi University, said, "North Korea is probably analyzing what President Bush's speech really means. They might feel 'betrayed' because he delivered such a speech in a situation when the Washington-Pyongyang ties are improving." In his speech at the UN, Bush did touch on the human rights situation in North Korea, presumably because of his consideration of the public opinion in the U.S. But he didn't mention it concretely.

Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University, said "North Korea may have been embarrassed by Bush's speech," with the approach of the six-party talks and the inter-Korean summit. He said, "But North Korea may feel too burdensome to take action to destroy the framework of the six-party talks. North Korea will likely watch what comments American officials will make and what actions they will take." Kim meant that North Korea will likely blame the U.S. more harshly, but that there is zero possibility of the former restoring its nuclear facilities -- including the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon -- which have already been shut down, to their previous state.

A researcher at a state-funded institute said, "But North Korea will likely lay one or two obstacles to the six-party talks, if it believes it can obtain anything more from the U.S." But the prevailing view so far is that Washington and Pyongyang may try to reach an agreement on disabling the latter's nuclear facilities by the end of the year, while putting the "Syrian issue" on the back burner. Washington and Pyongyang have common interests in this regard, given that the former wants to achieve diplomatic success by disabling the latter's nuclear facilities and the latter is hosting the second inter-Korean summit.

(englishnews@chosun.com )