"When do you think Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will step down?" is just one of many political questions frequently overheard these days.

Since the ruling Liberal Democratic Party suffered a humiliating defeat in July when it lost control of Japan's upper house, the grandiose words of national pride that Abe used when he was sworn in have been forgotten. What Abe can do on his own now is to clear up remaining business, including chairing a cabinet meeting to review extending contentious measures that allow Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Forces to keep refueling ships in the Indian Ocean.

Apparently, Abe has already made up his mind not to stick to his post. He wants to pave the way for an honorable step-down, looking forward to another chance in the future. But still reluctant to give up power just yet, he has reshuffled his cabinet, placating the LDP enough to agree to an extension of his premiership. But Abe's dreams of an honorable step-down may turn out to be just wishful thinking. Political uncertainties can turn the tables at any time.

Abe has already lost the authority to appoint important officials in his cabinet or the LDP. Of the nine LDP factions, the bosses of five have been appointed ministers or as chiefs of the three major party apparatuses. Real power of the party has been put in the hands of LDP secretary general Taro Aso, who has his eyes on Abe's job. Nonetheless, it won't be easy for Aso to assume the premiership anytime soon. As he belongs to a splinter faction with only 16 members, Aso would have to expand his power base by making the most of his current post.

If he is pushed further to the wall, Abe may dissolve the lower house and force elections, many observers say. But these predictions go too far. Under the country's parliamentary cabinet system, that would mean essentially "resetting" the entire Japanese government. The prime minister does have the authority under the law to dissolve the lower house, but realistically it's not possible to invoke the authority anytime he pleases, like the legendary ancient Chinese general Zhao Zilong wielding his scimitar.

Many of Abe's predecessors only dared to dissolve the lower house after securing the understanding of the LDP's factional bosses. Junichiro Koizumi did it on his own in 2005 because he was so powerful. Toshiki Kaifu vowed to do it in 1990, but had to back down in the face of opposition within the party. Abe simply doesn't have the power to do it against the tide of the LDP. In fact, most of the LDP members are saying they can't hold general elections with Abe standing in front.

And what about the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the landslide winners of the upper house elections? Outwardly, DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa is calling for a vote of confidence in Abe's cabinet by dissolving the lower house. But the reality is not so simple. The super-size ruling LDP accounts for 327 seats, or more than two-thirds of the seats in the lower house. Even if a no-confidence motion is submitted, it would be impossible to see it passed unless the LDP coalition falls apart.

If it is to win the general elections in the current circumstances, the DPJ would have to defeat more than one out of every three LDP candidates. It would be difficult for the DPJ to send the LDP packing with less than a majority in the lower house, unless it succeeds in snatching at least 97 seats from the ruling party. The DPJ won its upper house majority mainly because of some unexpected lucky breaks -- a series of ministers' verbal blunders, a pension crisis, and a political fund scandal. If the opposition were to fail to win a majority in general elections, then its dream of a change of government would fail and Ozawa would see his political career on the ropes.

The only option left for the LDP is to ease Abe out, pick a new prime minister, and hold elections when the timing is right. But nobody can predict where Japanese politics might go from there. Perhaps the political pendulum will swing closer to the center, considering that the results of the upper house elections were a public expression of frustration with the drift to the right since the Koizumi administration. This is the reason why South Korea should keep an eye on the political scene next door, seeing as how its own presidential election is just a few months away.

This column was contributed by Chung Kweon-hyun, the Chosun Ilbo’s correspondent in Tokyo.