1. High risk of insolvency.

As higher interest rates caused insolvencies among subprime mortgagees, so the offensive of vetting Lee's credentials proved the GNP’s investment could become “non-performing.” Although he denied the allegations raised against him, Lee's approval ratings dropped more than 10 percentage points and he was defeated in the ballot by party delegates and members. That was almost wholly the effect of the vetting. The subprime mortgage loan debacle snowballed because of the uncertain scale of total insolvencies. The question of vetting Lee, as reflected by the public, is similar.

2. Prosecution and TV.

It was foreign investors who sent the prices in the Korean stock market tumbling, even though it had little involvement in subprime mortgages. What would happen if the prosecution and TV networks suddenly sold off their Lee Myung-bak shares in the presidential election market, as the foreign investors did? If the offensive of the Park Geun-hye camp and the broad ruling camp against Lee was a jab, the prosecution announcement was nearly a KO punch. What matters is not the truth but the impact on the public. If TV networks drastically amplify the prosecution's so-called investigation result, Lee shares could tumble. Lee Hoi-chang suffered such a debacle in the 2002 presidential election. But the ideas of the prosecutor-general, who will soon resign, could be different from those of prosecutors who will have to look to their careers if and when Lee is elected president.

3. Park Guen-hye is the Bernanke of the GNP.

Normality returned to world financial markets to a certain extent when the Federal Reserve Board, chaired by Ben Bernanke, cut the lending rate it charges commercial banks by half a percentage point. Park Geun-hye is almost the sole person who can play Bernamke's role on behalf of Lee.

4. Major returns are possible.

When he won the 2002 Millenimum Democratic Party primary in Gwangju, Roh Moo-hyun shouted hurrah, saying, "The primary is finished." His implied prediction proved true in the presidential election. The region playing the role of Gwangju for the GNP is the Yeongnam area, or the Gyeongsang provinces. It was received wisdom that Yeongnam votes would sway outcome of ballots within the GNP. In Yeongnam, Lee was completely defeated by Park; in Daegu, which carries great political weight in Yeongnam, Lee was beaten by Park by more than a double score. Yet he still won the primary. This is unprecedented in the GNP.

Lee led in the opinion poll of ordinary citizens. In the ballot of party delegates and members, he won in Seoul, Gyeonggi Province and the Honam area or Jeolla provinces. He lost in the eastern belt, the GNP’s power base, and won in the western belt, the GNP's vulnerable spot. This suggests that Lee is stronger not in the GNP power base but outside it, and accordingly that he has room to expand his support. That is a major difference from the 2002 presidential election.

5. No profitable assets in the ruling camp.

The world stock markets plunged due to the subprime mortgage crisis because people shifted from high-risk, high-profit assets to low-risk, low-profit assets. Park Geun-hye was a low-risk, low-profit asset. Hence the fierce confrontation with Lee. But from now on, it's a fight between Lee and his ruling-party rivals. And the ruling camp’s presidential standard bearers, whoever they may be, are successors to Roh Moo-hyun and Kim Dae-jung. Their risks are unknown, but their profitability is anything but promising. Even if people sell their Lee Myung-bak shares, they don't yet have a suitable alternatives to invest in.