Record Turnout for GNP Primary Who Would Nominate Candidates by Opinion Poll? Lee Ahead of Park in Primary-Style Poll

But if there is little difference in the moves of the players, the atmosphere in the groups that cheer them is definitely not the same. Five years ago, MDP members cheered when confrontation between Rhee In-je and Roh Moo-hyun shifted to a close contest. Spectators gather only for a close match, and the MDP succeeded in taking power again thanks to a riveting performance in the primary.

But now, as confrontation between Lee and Park heats up, GNP members are uneasy. The main concerns are that the candidates are getting fatally bruised before the final competition and that members of the same family are fighting like bitter enemies. They worry that the presidential contenders will get hurt in the vetting battles and the party may split in the aftermath of the primary.

The 2002 MDP primary was not courteous, either. Negative attacks were exchanged -- even the career of a contender's father-in-law came under scrutiny -- and a candidate whose prospect of victory dimmed quit the candidacy prior to the primary and eventually bolted from the party. But the approval ratings of candidate Roh Moo-hyun, who won the primary, still shot up as high as 50 percent.

In contrast, the GNP underwent two exemplary presidential primaries. In the June 1997 primary, candidate Lee Hoi-chang gained an overwhelming victory without going through any substantial vetting. On July 23, 1997, two days after the primary, lawmakers of the National Congress for New Politics launched an allegation in the legislature that candidate Lee's two sons dodged the draft. Lee's approval ratings dropped 10 percentage points in 10 days after the primary and fell to third place within a month.

In the May 2002 GNP primary, Lee Hoi-chang was elected with ease, gaining 68 percent of votes. The competition being definitely one-sided, the primary was free of muckracking. The losing contenders pledged to cooperate as one for a change in power centered around the candidate. Despite such a beautiful primary, Lee's approval ratings stagnated.

In fact, the worry that the players exhaust their energy in fights among themselves before the final competition might just as well be voiced about the competition for a national boxing champion: the fiercer the presidential contenders fight in the primary, the stronger the competitiveness of a party candidate gets in the presidential election. The fear that the candidate will succumb to the same attacks in the presidential election also applies to boxing: issues that pass the judgment of the electorate in the primary are bound to have less destructive power in the presidential election than if they emerged there for the first time.

The GNP is used to a rite of passage where the party spreads a red carpet for a pre-determined candidate, with the remaining contenders assuming merely a ceremonial role. This is the formula the ruling party employed under authoritarian administrations. Only if the party is firmly united around a presidential candidate thus nominated, the thinking goes, can the party grasp power. But that strategy led to miserable defeats in the last two presidential elections.

The GNP is now for the first time in its history seeing a “real” primary. If Lee Myung-bak wins the primary by breaking through a fierce vetting offensive, he will be tempered into a much stronger and wholesome candidate than if he faced the presidential election without it. If Park Geun-hye manages a come-from-behind victory from the disadvantage of 20 percent approval ratings during the early phase, she will be able to arouse a momentum equivalent to Roh’s in 2002. If it really wants to take power, the GNP needs to do its very best to cheer the fight between the two contenders until the Aug. 19 primary.