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The weather agencies of South Korea and Japan have offered different forecasts on the effect of this year's fourth typhoon Man-Yi, which is moving northward and expected to hit the two countries around the weekend. The Japan Meteorological Agency says inland areas in Korea will be hit by Man-Yi by Saturday, but the Korea Meteorological Administration so far says it will not.
The two countries agree that the midsize typhoon is moving northwestward toward Taiwan from above waters some 1,000 km east of the Philippines as of Wednesday 3 p.m. at a speed of 30 km per hour. Once Man-Yi reaches Japan's Okinawa on Friday afternoon, it will likely move course to the east and affect southern Japan and the southern coastline of Korea's Jeju Island on Saturday.
But the two sides differ on how far its effect will reach. The Korean agency said Wednesday that winds blowing up to 15 m per second will affect a 450 km radius area from the eye of the typhoon as far as the southern Jeju coast by Saturday afternoon. But the Japanese agency the same day said winds blowing at 25 m/s would reach an 800 km radius including Korea's southern and central region as far as the Taean peninsula. That is a 350 km difference between the two countries' forecasts.
It is impossible to forecast a typhoon's course accurately three days prior to arrival with existing technology. Korea records a margin of error of an average 320 km in forecasting the location of the eye of typhoons 72 hours ahead, while the U.S. and Japan have a 270 km or so margin of error. A weather official in Seoul said, "Japan has forecast a much wider area which would come under the typhoon's effect from this year as they take into account the margin of error factor if the typhoonĄ¯s eye moves."
Meanwhile, the annual heat wave is forecast to start from early August (Aug. 1-10) when the vacation season gets properly under way. KMA says sultry days will start in early August, when the monsoon ends and Korea comes under the effect of the North Pacific anticyclone. Average regional record high temperatures in early August between 1971 and 2000 were 30.2 degrees Celsius in Seoul, 29.7 in Gangneung, 31.3 in Daejon, 32.1 in Daegu, 31.4 in Gwangju and 29.6 in Busan.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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