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On the second day of military talks, generals from the two Koreas have reached an effective agreement to hold a trial run for two sets of reconnected inter-Korean railways. Each year since 2004, the two Koreas had agreed to hold the trial runs and had even set a date, but cancelled each time because North Korea¡¯s military did not promise a guarantee of security or safe passage. During the latest round of general-level talks, North Korea insisted it would provide only a one-off security guarantee.
As if it was doing South Korea a huge favor, North Korea got US$80 million worth of raw materials from the South to manufacture shoes, soap and other goods, for allowing one trial run of the reconnected railways. In exchange, South Korea says it will gain rights to mine in North Korea. But it¡¯s difficult to tell how concrete and lucrative that pledge will be.
To begin with, the need for a security guarantee from the North Korean military does not make any sense. A normal country would not say different things depending which of two groups you negotiate with. Moreover, in North Korea, where the dear leader Kim Jong-il makes all the decisions, it is ludicrous to think that officials involved in inter-Korean talks can agree on one thing only to have it overturned by military officials. The security guarantee is merely a temporary vehicle that North Korea is using to get more out of South Korea than it gained from inter-Korean talks.
Besides the trial run of railways, other inter-Korean business projects have been lined up, including the collection of sand from the estuary of the Han River and inter-Korean direct flights. If the North refuses security guarantees, South Korea will have no choice but to comply. And North Korea insists it must follow the principle of mutual aid from beginning to end. But Pyongyang¡¯s idea of ¡°mutual¡± aid is a one-way street.
The South Korean government seems to be deeply grateful to North Korea for granting such a blessing. And South Korea is lost in thought over how it is going to package the one-off, $80 million trial run. Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung and Kwon Ho-ung, the senior councilor of the North Korean Cabinet, will ride a train on the Seoul-Kaesong railway. Construction and Transportation Minister Lee Yong-sup and Kim Yong-sam, head of North Korea¡¯s rail monopoly, will ride on the train along the east coast. Around 100 officials from both Koreas will reportedly be on each train as well.
Reconnecting the severed railways between the two Koreas is a very meaningful project. But what¡¯s important is not a one-off show but systematic guarantees to allow the passage of trains. Unless South Korea can get North Korea to reconsider, the true significance of the planned railway test runs will lose its value.
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