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Former Seoul National University president Chung Un-chan's withdrawal from the presidential race has, paradoxically, become a crisis for the opposition Grand National Party. Chung was virtually the only alternative candidate for the ruling camp -- the only one who could create a regional structure combining the Jeolla and Chungcheong regions, since he is from Chungcheong. With Chung out of the political arena, the GNP now has a much better chance of winning the presidential election. The day when Chung announced his withdrawal may yet prove a watershed in the presidential race.
So why is it a crisis for the GNP? Because there is now much less of a chance that the party¡¯s two frontrunners, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, will cooperate until the last moment. Those in the two campaign camps may now feel that the enemy fortress is finally within their sight, and that they can capture it only if they throw grenades and charge. Having come this far, neither can now turn back.
The command system of the enemy at the gates has already collapsed. And former ruling Uri Party chairman Chung Dong-young will benefit most from the other Chung¡¯s departure. Some Uri members are already saying there is only Chung Dong-young. Except that the Democratic Party can¡¯t accept the former Uri chairman, given the key role he played in splitting up what was then the Millennium Democratic Party and founding the Uri Party. The new DP chairman Park Sang-cheon is adamant on the matter. And without support from the DP, Chung will find it hard to improve his approval ratings.
Instead, the DP will likely field its own candidate, ex-chairman Chough Soon-hyung. The splinter group of former Uri lawmakers, who will likely merge with the DP, has no alternative of its own. And former Gyeonggi Province governor Sohn Hak-kyu is still struggling with his negative public image for having defected from the GNP. It seems he will drift around for the time being.
That is why Lee and Park may believe they are each other¡¯s sole rival in the race, which makes it so hard for either of them to give up. What¡¯s more, Lee can¡¯t give up because he enjoys the highest approval ratings among all presidential contenders, and Park because she believes that Lee's approval ratings don't precisely reflect public opinion. Voters in the Jeolla region account for about a quarter of Lee's approval ratings, and that quarter actually vanished in a recent poll, when the question, "Who would you want to be president?" was replaced by "Whom would you vote for right now?" Park's campaign camp firmly believes that Lee's approval ratings will drop once ruling-camp presidential candidates based in the Jeolla region make their presence known before the GNP holds a primary in August.
If any do, the GNP will highly likely hold a primary, because both Lee and Park will entertain hopes that they can win it. The primary may produce a unified candidate. But what if the ruling camp produces no candidates before August, which seems entirely plausible? Can the GNP hold a primary as scheduled? Nobody knows. That is the crisis now facing the GNP, and both Lee and Park.
The saying "Every crisis is an opportunity" applies best to politics. Politics is the business of uniting and piecing things together. The public feels reassured with those who know how to do this, and follows them. That is political leadership, and the president is a politician. If the president fails in politics, he will fail to revive the economy or strengthen national security. Many people feel uneasy about both Lee and Park, because their political leadership is in doubt. If they fail to overcome this public skepticism, they cannot become president.
Political leadership is gained from accepting loss and sacrifice. Roh Moo-hyun became president because he displayed political leadership by giving up his vested rights as the ruling party's candidate, and striking out as a unified candidate. Both Lee and Park could have displayed such political leadership when ex-governor Sohn left the GNP and after last week¡¯s by-elections. But both batted the opportunity away.
This crossroads is a golden chance for the two GNP front-runners to display their political skill to the public. This is also a chance for the public to see if they are qualified to be president. If they are not, the public will look somewhere else.
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