◆ A flurry of phone calls

The foreign ministers of the three countries have been exchanging frequent phone calls in recent days. On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice talked with Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing on the phone. On March 16 and 22, Rice and her Korean counterpart Song Min-soon talked over the phone. Then Song and Li talked on the phone on Friday. They discussed solutions to the problem of freeing North Korea’s funds in Macau’s Banco Delta Asia and implementation of the Feb.13 six-party agreement.

Song also spoke on the phone with Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso on Friday evening, after he finished talking with Rice and Li. Song spoke with Rice and Li on Feb. 14, speaking with Aso the following day. The negotiators from South Korea, the U.S. and China tend to maintain close cooperation at the venue of the six-party talks. In the latest round that started on March 19, China’s chief negotiator Wu Dawei first sat down with the U.S.’ Christopher Hill and Seoul’s Chun Yung-woo. At the same time, it has become rarer for South Korea and the U.S. to consult closely with Japan.

The likely reason is Washington’s sudden change in North Korea policy. The last time the traditional trio sat down together to coordinate their policies was last November. The Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG) aimed at discussing North Korea policy between the three hasn’t met for a long time.

From left: Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and South Korean Foreign Minister Song Min-soon

◆ Japan sidelined

The Feb. 13 agreement and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's comments on World War II "comfort women" have served to sideline Tokyo. “With the U.S.’ complete U-turn in North Korea policy, it has become difficult for Japan, which demands resolution of the issue of Japanese abductees, to cooperate with South Korea and the U.S.," says Lee Won-duk, a professor at Kookmin University. Another analysis has it that signs of the collapse in the traditional trilateral alliance already emerged last July, after North Korea’s missile test. At the time, some Japanese officials spoke of a possible pre-emptive strike against North Korea, to the displeasure of South Korea. As a result, says a fellow of a state-run think tank, “relations passed the point of no return.”

Some observers say Abe’s statement on the comfort women has also isolated Japan. A knowledgeable diplomatic source said, "Since Abe made the statement on comfort women, the U.S. has even felt uncomfortable about a summit slated for late April." South Korea and China started cooperating to hold Japan in check some time ago, since Tokyo has angered both with politicians’ visit to the militarist Yasukuni Shrine.

◆ A new trilateral relationship

Many observers say the cooperative relationship between Seoul, Washington and Beijing will continue for the foreseeable future. "The Abe administration has won voter support for its hardline policy on North Korea, so it’s unlikely Abe will immediately change it,” said Jin Chang-soo, the chief of the Sejong Institute’s Center for Japan’s Political Economy. “At least until July 22 when the election for the Japanese House of Councilors is finished, the South Korean-U.S.-Chinese system will keep gaining momentum." That suggests the new relationship will continue as long as the three countries have common strategic interests in prioritizing the North Korean nuclear issue and stabilizing Northeast Asia.

But others say there is no good alternative to the traditional trilateral alliance in the long term. "The U.S. accounts for a large portion in China's foreign policy. If the South Korea-U.S.-Chinese cooperative system continues, South Korea and China will eventually see their interests conflict, and there will be less room for South Korean influence,” said Kim Tae-ho, a professor at Hallym Institute of Advanced International Studies (HIAIS). “The new trilateral relationship is unlikely to develop into an alliance."

(englishnews@chosun.com )