Updated Mar.14,2007 11:35 KST

What Are the Chances of Summits With Kim Jong-il?
As follow-up to the Feb. 13 six-nation agreement on North Korea¡¯s nuclear program is taking shape, talk is making the rounds of several imminent summits signaling a thaw on the Korean Peninsula. As yet, they are only being discussed among politicians here; there seem to be no international moves. "Politicians are getting ahead of themselves,¡± one government official says. But about the chances of an inter-Korean summit meeting, he added, "If things move smoothly, would it be impossible?"

¡ß Inter-Korean summit

When ex-prime minister Lee Hae-chan returned from Pyongyang on Monday, he said he proposed to North Korean officials the possibility of an inter-Korean summit but he added that it could only take place later than April, by which time the North is supposed to have taken initial steps toward disabling its nuclear facilities. But Uri Party lawmakers and Uri defectors are all systems go. Senior government officials including Unification Minister Lee Jae-jeong say nothing has been prepared but still insist an inter-Korean summit is needed. In effect, all that remains to be done is for North Korea to choose a date -- June 15 or Aug. 15 -- for a summit.

Academics brush aside the fact that there will be no under-the-table payments to facilitate the summit as in 2000. "Cash can be replaced by a large-scale infrastructure development program," said Suh Jae-jin, a senior research scholar at the Korea Institute of National Unification. Prof. Nam Sung-wook of Korea University, a North Korea specialist, cited Pyongyang¡¯s interest in improving its ties with Washington and interfering in the upcoming South Korean presidential election as sufficient incentive. As the venue, proponents mention the North Korean border town of Kaesong or a city in a third country like China, because North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is reluctant to visit South Korea.

¡ß More summits

Grand National Party Rep. Chung Hyung-keun says there is talk of a summit between the two Koreas and the U.S. , possibly in June or July. Rep. Lee Hwa-young of the Uri Party, who accompanied Lee Hae-chan to Pyongyang, agrees. A senior researcher at a state-run think-tank says North Korea would be more interested in a three-way summit with the U.S. than in a purely inter-Korean meeting.

Some quarters anticipate a four-country summit that would include China. A peace framework including declaring a formal end to the Korea War ¡°would be the main agenda¡± of such a summit, in the opinion Cho Seong-ryoul, a fellow at the Research Institute for International Affairs. But others rule these two options out for the time being "The U.S. is positively avoiding becoming a variable in a Korean presidential election, so a summit including the U.S. should be difficult,¡± says Prof. Nam Joo-hong of Kyonggi University. "But an exchange visit by senior officials could be possible, like in 2000¡± when North Korean Vice Marshal Cho Myong-rok visited Washington and secretary of state Madeleine Albright went to Pyongyang, Nam added.

(englishnews@chosun.com )