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The two Koreas will highly likely be unified by 2020, the former U.S. deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage predicts in a report. Titled ¡°U.S.-Japan Alliance: Getting Asia Right Through 2020¡±, the report was issued by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). In it, Armitage says, ¡°It appears increasingly likely that the North Korean nuclear issue will be finally resolved only upon unification,¡± probably in a way similar to that of Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The U.S. dismantled Ukraine¡¯s nuclear facilities for the country as it returned all its nuclear warheads to Russia and declared itself nuclear free. According to Armitage, a possibility remains that North Korea will hold out till the end.
¡°One reunification scenario involves instability in North Korea, which would raise difficult challenges with respect to controlling the North¡¯s WMD arsenal and possibly burden the Republic of Korea so heavily that its own democratic institutions and economic prosperity would be put at risk,¡± Armitage writes. He advises all parties concerned to prepare for all scenarios with ¡°unprecedented agility in terms of diplomacy and deterrence.¡± For the current government of South Korea, he says, ¡°instability on the peninsula is viewed as a greater threat than North Korea¡¯s nuclear weapons program. This aligns Seoul¡¯s threat assessment more with that of China than the United States and Japan.¡±
According to Armitage, the political views of many of Korea¡¯s reform-minded leaders were shaped in the struggle against U.S.-backed authoritarian governments. Without direct experience of the Korean War they ¡°harbor suspicions about the motive of the U.S.,¡± he adds. But the report said South Korea and the U.S. ¡°share an alliance forged in bloody struggle against common enemies¡± and have been modernizing their alliance to tackle new challenges. ¡°South Korea will play a leading role and the United States a supporting role in the alliance of the future, and the force structure and command arrangements will reflect this partnership,¡± he predicts.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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