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Did North Korean leader Kim Jong-il make the strategic decision to give up his nuclear program? Or did he just make what short-term concessions he needed to overcome financial sanctions and a food shortage? These were the first questions many asked after the latest round of six-party talks reached agreement in Beijing on Tuesday. North Korea has a solid history of making and going back on agreements on its nuclear program: the 1991 inter-Korean Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the 1994 Geneva Accords, and the September 2005 statement of principles in the six-party talks. None of them stopped the North¡¯s nuclear development, right up until the nuclear test last October.
Under UN sanctions for the test, Pyongyang has now agreed to take initial steps toward disabling its nuclear facilities again. Cynics naturally wonder how long it will last.
Many pundits suspect the agreement is another temporary fix. "This could be a tactical maneuver,¡± said Dr. Kim Tae-woo of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. ¡°It gives the international community a tangible result in a bid to overcome urgent difficulties, including economic difficulties, in return for some guarantees." A former government official said on condition of anonymity, "We mustn¡¯t forget that North Korea is a closed society. Negotiators have so far agreed to give rewards to North Korea in return for giving up some tangible programs. But we need a different approach to negotiations on North Korean issues."
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Visitors pass by flowers decorated in front of a poster showing North Korean leader Kim Jong-il holding a child during the Kimjongilia Flower Exhibition in Pyongyang, North Korea on Wednesday in this image made from television. The special flower exhibition was held to celebrate the 65th birthday of North leader Kim Jong Il on Friday./AP
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But others advise waiting to see if the North takes the first step and shuts down nuclear facilities in Yongbyon. They say since North Korea has experienced real difficulties in the aftermath of its nuclear test, it could actually dismantle its nuclear facilities if the United States is patient in negotiations. Prof. Kim Geun-shik of Kyungnam University said, "North Korea apparently has the intention to conduct negotiations with the U.S. because its economy is getting worse and even China and Russia have joined UN sanctions against it." A former senior government official said, "North Korea has long wanted to end hostile relations with the United States. This time, the U.S. agreed to accept North Korea's demand, so North Korea will in turn accept U.S. requests."
By the same token, academics have warnings for the North. Security strategy specialist Lee Ki-dong, is one of them. "Since the U.S. is seeking strategic changes in its North Korea policy, the North will never get such a good opportunity again if it fails to comply with the Beijing agreement,¡± he said.
Things will become clearer after April 13, 60 days from the agreement, by which time the North has to take the first step by shutting down the Yongbyon facilities. North Korea¡¯s fate will depend on whether Kim stays the course toward disabling the facilities or remains a nuclear state once it has overcome the worst economic difficulties with the help of renewed rice and fertilizer aid from the South. Most experts say the North is in for worse if this was just another adventure to buy time.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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