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The accord reached in six-party talks in Beijing on Tuesday is merely a first step toward divesting North Korea of its nuclear program and facilities. The real process of dismantling them will start only after the agreement is put into practice.
¡ßReporting the program
If North Korea complies with the initial steps to nuclear disablement within 60 days, the most crucial moment could happen when it has to reports its nuclear materials and facilities and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) starts inspections. In 1992, the IAEA discovered two nuclear facilities that North Korea had not reported, but its request to inspect them was rejected by the North. That was the beginning of the first nuclear crisis. Nobody can rule out a similar incident this time. In October 2002, the U.S. says, North Korea admitted to a uranium enrichment program, causing a second-round crisis. North Korea has since then denied the existence of such a program. And if it continues to do so and fails to report it to the IAEA, there is a danger that the rewards will be suspended.
Both South Korea and the United States urge North Korea to ultimately destroy about 44 kg of plutonium that it is estimated to have produced. Given that this material can be turned into nuclear weapons any time, Seoul and Washington stress the importance of having the North report it as soon as possible and dismantle it. But North Korea is highly likely to try to start protracted negotiations over the issue.
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This DigitalGlobe satellite file image shot on Feb. 5, and released Feb. 7, 2003 shows the nuclear reactor site in Yongbyon, North Korea./AFP-Yonhap
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¡ß The light-water reactor, again
While implementing the initial steps, North Korea will likely bring up the light-water reactor it has long demanded. Since the 2005 statement of principles mentions "negotiations¡± on the supply of a safer -- i.e. non-plutonium producing -- light-water reactor, North Korea has called for it at every opportunity, including the six-party talks. But the U.S. maintains that only after North Korea dismantles its nuclear facilities can it even begin discussions on the matter. Thus there always exists fodder for a fresh dispute. Besides, there is the question whether to shut down the site in Gilju, North Hamgyeong Province where North Korea conducted a nuclear test last year. Other participating nations, including South Korea, want it shut down to prevent the North from conducting another test. North Korea thinks differently.
Views are divided over how long it will take to finish the whole process. U.S. President George W. Bush wants to complete it before his term of office expires in January 2009. It took four years and four months since the second nuclear crisis that North Korea agreed to freeze operation of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor again, which was first shut under the 1994 Geneva Accord. If this is the standard, all the participants will be dead before North Korea completely dismantles its nuclear facilities, let alone its nuclear program.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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