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The three most promising presidential hopefuls from the opposition Grand National Party combine two-thirds of public support, a survey suggests. The survey by pollster Metrix found combined support for Lee Myung-bak, Park Geun-hye and Sohn Hak-kyu stood at 66.6 percent -- 38.4 percent for Lee, 24.9 percent for Park and 3.3 percent for Sohn. Another survey in November by the Korea Society Opinion Institute showed the figure at 59.7 percent. The latest poll by radio network CBS and pollster Realmeter on Dec. 4 saw the majority of respondents or 69.7 percent predicting a GNP presidential candidate will win in next year's presidential election.
The now widespread perception that the opposition party will win whoever its candidate may be is based on these opinion polls. However, similar claims were made in the presidential elections in 1997 and 2002, and both times the GNP lost.
Whether it will happen this time remains to be seen.
The support ratings for the GNP's three most promising candidates are some 20 percentage points higher than the support rating for the party, which hovers in the 40 percent range, suggesting that the three are supported even by those who don't like the GNP. Pundits say there are two main reasons. First, the ruling Uri Party has failed to produce a promising candidate so far. Second, the GNP hopefuls benefit from the government¡¯s popularity slump. The public see the Roh Moo-hyun administration as the worst-ever in administrative affairs, and this boosts support for opposition hopefuls -- so far.
It all depends whether the trend continues for the entire year until the presidential election on Dec. 19, 2007. The ruling party has the edge in terms of information, funds and organization power. It will not let go without a fight even if it has no powerful candidate now. Uri is also concentrating its efforts on coming up with clever ideas that could turn the tables. That is why the GNP is extremely cautious despite the overwhelmingly support ratings.
Asked what kind of government they want after the Roh administration, respondents were almost equally divided between conservative with 48.2 percent and progressive and reformist with 45.1 percent. Three-hundred and seventy-three days are a long time in politics.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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