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U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's replacement could spell change in U.S. military policy in South Korea, including reduction and re-deployment of the U.S. Forces Korea, experts say. But few expect a seismic upheaval after the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress on Wednesday. Among the Korea-related policies Rumsfeld pursued are the Global Posture Review, a redeployment of U.S. forces worldwide; strategic flexibility allowing these forces to be sent to trouble spots; the planned handover of wartime operational control of Korean forces to Seoul; and troop dispatch to Iraq. Under the plans, the U.S. Forces Korea are to be reduced by 12,500 personnel by 2008 and USFK bases north of the Han River will move to Pyeongtaek in Gyeonggi Province.
The gist of these policies will stay the same, experts predict. ¡°The framework of U.S. military policy including strategic flexibility for the USFK, the handover of wartime operational control, the GPR and military transformation will go unchanged,¡± said Hallym Institute of Advanced International Studies president Park Yong-ok. "The handover of wartime operational control will be dealt with by the next U.S. administration, and it¡¯s possible that a new government becomes more flexible in addressing the issue.¡±
An expert with a research institute under the Defense Ministry said Rumsfeld's replacement ¡°has nothing to do with the Korean Peninsula and may not change U.S. military policy toward the peninsula that much." Another expert said the early handover of wartime operational control to Seoul and discord in the Korea-U.S. alliance cannot be laid at Rumsfeld¡¯s door alone. "We've seen too much progress in relation to redeployment of the USFK and handover of operational control, and it¡¯s too late to review those issues from scratch,¡± he added. But there may be changes in detail.
Nam Joo-hong, a political scientist at Kyonggi University, agrees the basic principles of U.S. military policy in South Korea will not change. "But I expect to see some flexibility in how related issues are addressed,¡± he said. "Thus it¡¯s possible that Washington will ask Seoul to take over an additional financial burden for the USFK upkeep costs in return for delaying the handover of wartime operational control until 2012 as Seoul wishes.¡± Nam urged ¡°the wisdom to take advantage of the Democratic majority in Congress and U.S. public opinion and strengthen diplomatic efforts to deal with military issues with the U.S."
If the Democrats seek to pull U.S. troops out of Iraq earlier than expected, meanwhile, it would lead to growing demands for Korea to do the same.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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