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President Roh Moo-hyun meets Japan¡¯s new Prime Minister Abe Shinzo on Monday and Chinese President Hu Jintao on Friday to discuss ways of stopping North Korea from conducting a nuclear test. But prospects are anything but rosy, with some pundits saying even the combined thrust of Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo is not enough to put direct pressure on Pyongyang to desist.
The top priority of Roh¡¯s meeting with Abe was to be the historical issues that have divided the two governments, not least the persistent visits from Abe¡¯s predecessor to the militarist Yasukuni Shrine. But Pyongyang¡¯s shock announcement last week that it plans to carry out a nuclear test ¡°in the future¡± have made that secondary. Chances are slim that the two leaders can come up with any definite measures to address the situation as both exert little influence on the North. Experts say the pair will have to content themselves with urging the North to refrain from a nuclear test. They also expect little progress on a nebulous ¡°common and comprehensive approach¡± agreed between Seoul and Washington earlier to lure the North back to six-party talks on its nuclear program while the threat of a test hangs overhead.
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Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao (left) and Japan's new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe inspect an honor guard during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Sunday./AFP
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In an indication of the difficulties ahead, Seoul and Tokyo agreed to hold separate press conferences after the summit instead of the joint one that is the norm. That partly reflects differences in expectations over the divisive history issues. Even the decision whether to issue joint press releases was reportedly only to be made on Monday morning.
More may come of Friday¡¯s summit with China, since the North¡¯s long-term ally is still considered capable of dialogue with North Korea. Again, the North¡¯s announcement last week overthrew the summit agenda. It was to have focused on comprehensive approaches to help the North return to the six-party talks, but now the stress will be on the threat of a nuclear test. The two countries are expected to speak in one voice warning Pyongyang of the consequences if it goes ahead with the test.
How strong the message from Seoul and Beijing will be compared to the stern tones from Tokyo and Washington remains to be seen. South Korea and China have been urging the U.S. to be more flexible in dealing with the North.
Both summits are therefore crucial at a time when the North must decide whether to go ahead with its plan for a nuclear test, experts say.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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