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A summit between President Roh and his U.S. counterpart George W. Bush in September and the annual Security Consultative Meeting between the two countries in October will cement plans for Korea to take over sole wartime control of its troops. The two allies have reportedly agreed on most key issues including a new joint defense system that is to replace Combined Forces Command, but a few hard nuts have yet to be cracked -- not least the date, with Seoul aiming for 2012 and Washington for 2009.

◆Dismantling Combined Forces Command

When Korea exercises sole operational control of its troops, Combined Forces Command will naturally be dismantled. Instead, Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff would play the leading role if war breaks out and the U.S. Forces Korea command a supporting role. The framework for that will be a Military Cooperation Center to be established to fill any security vacuum the dismantlement of the CFC may create, whose role will be to promote cooperation between Korean troops and the USFK in wartime and peace.

With the CFC goes a joint strategy for dealing with North Korea in a war known as OPLAN 5027. A new operation plan will be needed where the nation’s military takes on a leading role and the MCC coordinates between Seoul and Washington. A Defense Ministry official said cooperative mechanisms among senior officials such as the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) and the Korea-U.S. Military Committee (MC) will be maintained.

◆Guarantees of U.S. Reinforcements

The greatest concern is whether the U.S. will dispatch reinforcements in war and continue support where Korean forces are deficient in capacity like military intelligence after the forces control handover. Under OPLAN 5027, the U.S. would send 690,000 troops, some 160 warships including five fleets of aircraft carriers and some 2,500 airplanes to the Korean Peninsula within 90 days after war breaks out. This is stated in a document titled “Time-Phased Force and Deployment Data.”

The Defense Ministry says it will obtain documented guarantees that the U.S. will dispatch overwhelming reinforcements to the peninsula even after Korea “withdraws” wartime operational control. But experts say even if the U.S. promises reinforcements in case of war at the SCM in October, it will not determine their size. Pundits predict that since the USFK will play only a supportive role when Korea exercises sole operational control, reinforcements will inevitably shrink. Defense officials on both sides say quality matters more than quantity, and neither side denies that the scope would be smaller.

Some predict that wartime reinforcements will be provided based on what are known as Flexible Deterrence Options (FDO) and Force Module Packages (FMPs), to be deployed right before and after war breaks out. FDOs are ready to be implemented when war is imminent and include political, economic, diplomatic and military options. Approximately 150 deterrence options including surveillance equipment and deployment of Patriot units are ready to be employed. FMPs are measures that boost combat units in the early phase of war when FDOs fail. They include aircraft carrier battle groups and ground-to-ground missile units.

◆Deploying Weapons

The Defense Ministry says it will gradually acquire the surveillance equipment, surgical attack weapons and command/control and communications equipment to coincide with the handover. The surveillance equipment includes the E-X projects to acquire four airborne early warning aircrafts (estimated costs of W1.6 trillion) and multi-purpose satellites and communications satellites (W600 billion). The surgical attack weapons include additional 20 F-15K fighters (estimated cost of more than W2 trillion), nine 214-class 1,800-ton submarines (to be built for W3.15 trillion) and 900 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs).

(englishnews@chosun.com )