Updated Aug.25,2006 20:45 KST

Future Map Puts Korean Economy Ahead of U.S.
Where will Korea stand in the global economy in 2015?

The Social and Spatial Inequalities Research Group in the University of Sheffield¡¯s Geography Department and a research team at the University of Michigan have produced a ¡°World Wealth Map 2015¡±, a collection of maps resizing territories according to their economic power. The map projects Korea as the world¡¯s sixth largest in terms of per-capita GDP in purchasing power parity with US$38,249, surging ahead of the U.S. in seventh with $38,063 and Japan in ninth with $35,694. The two teams took into account data from nine organizations including the World Bank, the CIA and the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in creating the map.

Courtesy of the Social and Spatial Inequalities Research Group

The map ranks Korea eighth in terms of economic growth between 1975 and 2002. Korea¡¯s per capita GDP in purchasing power parity grew a whopping $13,523 during this period, but the country was behind the other two ¡°Asian Tigers¡± Hong Kong in fifth place and Singapore in sixth. It was company domicile Luxemburg that saw the greatest increase in wealth during the period with $39,968, followed by tiny oil-rich Equatorial Guinea, Ireland, Norway, Hong Kong, Singapore, the U.S., Korea, Japan and Cyprus. Among the four Asian nations in the top 10, Korea¡¯s GDP grew less than Hong Kong¡¯s ($18,496) and Singapore¡¯s ($17,601) but more than Japan¡¯s ($13,468). According to the map, China excluding Hong Kong grew only $4,035 over this period.

But experts point out that the map takes no account of structural changes now underway. The biggest factor that could slow Korea down is a failure to achieve the 6-8 percent-range growth of the past. Korea¡¯s average annual economic growth has declined to the 4 percent level since 2000. The positive cycle of consumption-investment-export has been broken, and sluggish domestic demand and investment have become entrenched. Even before joining the ranks of advanced nations, Korea started aging too fast. ¡°The Korean economy has faced many stumbling blocks since 2000, led by aging population and sluggish growth,¡± says Samsung Economic Research Institute managing director Chung Moon-kun. ¡°Its prospects are overestimated.¡±

Another factor not featured is the rapid emergence of China. China is expected to account for 27 percent of the global economy in 2015, outstripping the U.S. to become the world¡¯s largest economic powerhouse nine years hence. China¡¯s share of the global economy stood at a mere 5 percent in 1960. ¡°China is in competition with Korea in terms of economic structure and its growth will disadvantage Korea,¡± warns Bain & Company CEO Sunny Yi. ¡°We need to hurry to improve our competitiveness by concluding a free trade agreement with the U.S. and differentiate ourselves from China.¡±

(englishnews@chosun.com )