When Dealing With North Korea, Assume the Worst North Korea: Salami or Hedgehog? U.S. Renews Warning of N.Korea Nuke Test Seoul Closely Watching N.Korea Over Nuke Test Threat N.Korea Ready for Nuke Test Anytime: Spymaster The Year of Living Dangerously Roh Explains ‘Political’ Nature of N.Korea Missile Tests The President’s N.Korea Doctrine Unlike Roh, Defense Chief Considers Missiles a ''Military Threat''

Experts overwhelmingly agreed that South Korea would lose its power to deter the North. “Nuclear weapons overpower any other kinds of weapons. The deterrent against the North would weaken by more than 50 percent,” said Nam Sung-wook, a North Korea specialist at Korea University. The vice chairman of the Center for Free Enterprise, Lee Choon-kun, went further, predicting the South would completely lose its power to keep the North in check.

Many said it would be inevitable for the South to change its North Korea policies entirely. Lee Sang-hyun, the head of the security research department at the Sejong Institute, said rewriting North Korea policies would be inevitable since the current deterrent against it would become meaningless. Chun Sung-hoon, a researcher with the Korea Institute for National Unification, warned Seoul would be the first to feel the need to overhaul its policies.

Nam said the South will find itself in a Catch 22 over continuing with the inter-Korean joint industrial complex in Kaesong and package tours to the North’s Mt. Kumgang resort. All agreed with Lee Choon-kun’s opinion that a nuclear test would end all hopes of normalizing diplomatic relations between the U.S and North Korea. A majority also said any nuclear test could undermine South Korean ties with the U.S. Only Chun saw a test as an opportunity to consolidate the Seoul-Washington alliance.

All also predicted a fatal impact on the South Korean economy. Nam cited a study showing North Korea’s last 50 provocations invariably rattled the South Korean stock market: Seoul shares first plummeted and later surged. But it was even unable to predict what impact a nuclear test would bring about, because North Korea has not yet crossed the line, Nam added. Lee Choon-kun said U.S investors would naturally leave the South in the face of a security crisis on the peninsula since military strategy and economic policy are inseparable in the U.S.

The pundits also mulled the unlikely scenario that other countries rush to arm themselves with nuclear weapons in response. Lee Sang-hyun said the U.S. would prevent them from doing that since it does not believe proliferation of nuclear weapons is an answer to a nuclear threat. Lee said Japan would prefer to stay under the U.S. nuclear umbrella since it knows that nuclear armament without deterrent power is useless. He said conservative forces would pressure Seoul to arm itself with nuclear weapons, but the government would be unlikely to give into the pressure given its progressive, nationalist tendency.

Lee Sang-hyun said some people would push for bringing U.S nuclear weapons back to the Korean Peninsula rather than Seoul developing its own.

(englishnews@chosun.com )