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Discord between Seoul on the one hand and Washington and Tokyo on the other over additional sanctions on North Korea is inevitable, observers say. The U.S. and Japan announced they will take sanctions over the North¡¯s missile tests on top of a UN Security Council resolution against the communist country if it does not return to six-party talks to dismantle its nuclear program. The sanctions are unlikely to cause the North great pain since bilateral trade between the U.S. and North Korea is vanishingly small and Washington only provided some 20,000 tons of food aid last year. In the case of Japan, the money flow from the country to North Korea comes in the form of cash visitors from Japan to the North give directly to families there, which means Tokyo can do little to stop it.
However, earlier financial sanctions by the U.S. put real pressure on the North Korean regime - one reason, pundits speculate, why Pyongyang test-fired missiles after already explicitly boycotting the six-nation talks because of them. The North is unlikely to return to the negotiating table simply because the sanctions are imposed; the influence of China and South Korea is needed to bring the North back.
China has a handle because it provides a considerable amount of crude oil to North Korea and also supplies food and trades with the North. But Beijing is unlikely to put an end to that, and there are limits to Washington¡¯s influence on China. That is why the U.S. baulks at South Korea¡¯s assistance to Pyongyang. The South provides some 500,000 tons of food and 350,000 tons of fertilizer to the North every year, the greatest help the communist regime gets from any nation. Seoul is also committed to paying North Korea US$20 million in the form of Mt. Kumgang tourism fees and payments for the joint-Korean Keasong Industrial Complex. That is no small sum for Pyongyang, given the huge risks it is taking to get back the $24 million frozen in a Macau bank due to the financial sanctions. North Korea¡¯s trade volume stood at $3 billion last year, of which China accounted for $1.5 billion and South Korea $1 billion. In short, South Korea is the most important source of assistance to North Korea, and if it stops assistance, it could mean serious trouble for the regime.
Washington says that as long as Seoul continues to help Pyongyang, Pyongyang will continue to develop nuclear weapons and missiles. Seoul maintains that the suspension of aid to Pyongyang will make matters worse and put the whole Korean Peninsula in danger. The differences are unlikely to be resolved so long as the Roh Moo-hyun Administration and the Bush Administration confront each other.
Many predict the Kaesong Complex and Mt. Kumgang tourism will become serious bones of contention between Seoul and Washington, though government officials publicly deny that. When U.S. officials complain about working conditions of North Korean workers at the Kaesong Complex, for instance, they do so knowing their condition -- that workers should be able to collect their wages in person -- is unlikely to be met.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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