Updated July.5,2006 22:56 KST

A Bad Misjudgment From North and South
In the face of repeated warnings from the international community, North Korea on Wednesday fired a long-range Taepodong-2 missile and several medium-range Scud-type and Rodong missiles into the East Sea at dawn, and another one in the afternoon for good measure. Although the Taepodong-2 failed 40 seconds after launch, the action was a dangerous provocation.

It was timed to coincide with the U.S.¡¯ launch of the space shuttle Discovery in commemoration of Independence Day, and the range of the three types of missile make them capable of reaching the U.S., Japan and South Korea: it was tantamount to throwing down the gauntlet to the international community. It also put paid to this government¡¯s North Korea policy and Pyongyang¡¯s one-nation rhetoric in one fell swoop.

Why the slap in the face for our government? It is the natural consequence of Seoul¡¯s arbitrary interpretation of the North's intentions. When other countries said North Korea was preparing to launch missiles, the government opined it was more likely to be a satellite. In military strategy, it is a fatal mistake to assume good intentions in an opponent without convincing reason. The basic idea of our North Korea policy is that the North will somehow change if only it is given enough aid. That has been proved wrong. Despite enormous economic aid every season, the administration failed utterly to influence Pyongyang as it prepared to launch the missiles since early May.

The means by which the government has tried to bring North Korea out into the world of peace and common sense were also wrong. The fruits of its efforts to mediate between the U.S. and North Korea were financial sanctions from Washington and a missile launch from Pyongyang. The administration miscalculated its capabilities. It thought talk of independence alone could produce independent strength. Now our national security is in danger because the government knows neither its counterparts nor itself.

The international community is taking swift steps. The UN Security Council on Wednesday decided to convene an emergency meeting to deal with the North Korean missile issue. "You're going to see a lot of diplomatic activity here over the next 24-48 hours,¡± White House national security adviser Stephen Hadley said. Japan, which convened a ministerial meeting even before South Korea did, immediately banned a North Korean freighter and the passenger ferry Manggyongbong-92 from calling at Japanese ports.

Yet this government has done nothing but issue a statement expressing ¡°serious regret¡± and urging an immediate return to the six-nation talks. It is silent about any specific steps it will take. If the government remains attached to its fantasy of a well-meaning North and refuses to wake up from its daydream of playing the mediator between Washington and Pyongyang while continuing to provide aid to the North, the missile crisis will escalate and the country's security be jeopardized further. That way lies a dissolution of the Korea-U.S alliance and Korea¡¯s status as an international orphan.

As far as missiles and the nuclear standoff are concerned, South Korea's hand is not strong enough to prop up North Korea. If North Korea thinks it can still gain something from its anachronistic brinkmanship with a South Korea cajoled and bullied into standing by its side, it is making a serious miscalculation. That sort of strategy will no longer work.