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Reports have it that North Korea has completed preparations to test-launch a Taepodong-2 missile with an estimated radius of 6,700 km. If the North test-fires an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland, it would put an instant strain on security on the Korean Peninsula.
The U.S. would react strongly, since it would see the launch as evidence that Pyongyang has secured a long-range carrier for a nuclear warhead after declaring itself a nuclear power in February last year. Washington, and its ally Tokyo, would immediately want the North referred to the UN Security Council. Nor would North Korea¡¯s ally China welcome the launch out of concern that it would give Japan an excuse to beef up its military strength.
In 1988, North Korea launched a Taepodong-1 missile with a radius of 1,400 km, which prompted the Clinton administration to barter the removal of U.S. sanctions for a moratorium on missile tests. But it would be a big mistake if Pyongyang hopes to repeat that coup. This time, sanctions would not be lifted but reinforced immediately. The uncertainty would also cool the world market's view of the South Korean economy, and that would deal a blow to billion-dollar inter-Korean economic cooperation projects now underway.
Our own government, in the full knowledge that North Korea was building up to test-firing a new missile, has acted in a way that inspires no confidence. It sent North Korea a signal that it is ready to discuss redrawing the Northern Limit Line, the sea extension of the armistice line, and signed an accord to cooperate in the development of the North's light industries and underground resources. At anniversary celebrations for the June 15, 2000 inter-Korean summit that ended in Gwangju on Saturday, government officials were full of one-nation rhetoric amid anti-American slogans and the calls for a withdrawal of the U.S. Forces Korea from the crowds. During the events, the government is said to have conveyed to the North its ¡°concerns¡± about the imminent missile launch. We have no way of knowing through what channel the message was conveyed, how firm it was or how attentively the North listened.
A statement from private and public organizations issued at the anniversary celebrations said, "The entire nation, however the surrounding situation may change, should trust and depend on each other and resolve the unification question with the strength of the nation." That is just another instance of the North's habitual tactic to bamboozle the South with the unification slogan. But what frame of mind are the government and private organizations in to allow themselves to act as a cheering squad in the face of the present threat?
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