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Experts say Tuesday's statement by North Korea that makes surrender of its nuclear arms programs contingent on having a light-water reactor built for it is in the short term a play to strengthen the Stalinist country¡¯s hand. But opinions differ widely on Pyongyang¡¯s deeper motive for essentially turning a statement of principles agreed at six-party talks on its head.
Prof. Nam Seong-wook of Korea University says jockeying for position has already begun over the light-water reactor issue, on which the Beijing agreement merely envisages ¡°discussion¡Šat an appropriate time.¡± Chon Hyun-joon of the Korea Institute for National Unification says the North's Foreign Ministry made the comment to "grab control of negotiations." It was for this reason that North Korea¡¯s chief negotiator at the six-party talks Kim Kye-gwan did not respond to the agreement but waited to see the U.S. reaction. Both experts felt Tuesday¡¯s statement was a rebuff to U.S. chief negotiator Christopher Hill, who a day earlier had stressed the need to verify that North Korea will really dismantle its nuclear programs.
Chon said there was also an internal dimension to Tuesday¡¯s announcement, where it would serve to reassure North Korea's hardliners. Those are mainly found in the country¡¯s military. Kim Tae-hyo of Sungkyunkwan University said, "Even if Kim Jong-il wants reform and openness, I find it hard to believe that the military leadership, his power base, would agree." Kim said it was still unclear whether the North Korean leadership really agreed to dismantle its nuclear program.
Song Dae-sung, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, said the statement could be an indication that North Korea has no intention of resolving the nuclear dispute but has only been buying time. He voiced a suspicion that it agreed to the deal in Beijing to ease pressure from the international community while it waits to see what comes after the Bush administration.
But most pundits agreed that Pyongyang will find it difficult to tear up the agreement: the statement of principles, after all, contains not only obligations for the North but also a commitment from the other parties to things it wants and needs, like economic aid and security guarantees.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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