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The military reform blueprint prepared by the Defense Ministry is likely to run into a number of difficulties along the way.
The biggest predicted stumbling block is the budget. Even developed nations in Europe that started military reform in the late 1990s are finding themselves under pressure to gradually increase their military spending.
France, which is pushing a 20-year reform plan up till 2015, is Korea's model. After completing the first stage of its reforms from 1997 to 2003, in which it reduced manpower by doing away with conscription (about 200,000 men) and introducing a professional army, France is now on to stage two, boosting its military strength by acquisition of high-tech equipment.
France cut personnel by about 150,000 men, going from 500,000 in 1996 to 356,000 in 2002. Yet there was no major change in defense spending during that period. Once it entered stage two, calling for investment in fighting strength, spending started to rise sharply. In 2003 it was 31 billion euros, an increase of more than 2 billion euros from the previous year.
The U.K also has military reform under way, starting with the publication of its Strategic Defense Review in 1998. But between 1998 and 2003, defense spending increased an average of 3.2 percent per annum, nearly double the 1.7 percent recorded earlier in the 1990s. Manpower decreased from 310,000 to 210,000 during that period.
Here, a Defense Ministry official said, because the ministry draws up its mid-range plans every five years, it is not easy to predict defense expenditures required for the next 15 years.
Another problem is the great reduction in top brass. That is not only likely to provoke considerable opposition from within the military but will also need careful planning in terms of who will be offered early discharge. According to the blueprint, the number of generals is to be reduced by over a third.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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