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Observers expect Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to lose the next election after he dissolved the House of Representatives on Monday over his failure to push through post-office privatization. Blamed by many for souring the relationship between Korea and Japan ¡°because of his conservative tendencies,¡± in the words of one diplomat, Koizumi could nonetheless be succeeded by an even more rightwing prime minister.
Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said Tuesday he expected Japan's political situation to stabilize quickly. In the meantime, Koizumi may go ahead with a visit due on Aug. 15 to Tokyo¡¯s controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which houses memorials to convicted war criminals, because it could help garner support from his Liberal Democratic Party's conservative wing. Observers say Koizumi¡¯s revisionist tendencies could grow more pronounced if he manages to form another government.
If the LDP loses ground but wins the election, Koizumi is likely to step down to make way for a new prime minister from within its ranks, with acting LDP chief Shinzo Abe, a leading rightwinger, the most popular candidate. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda, who could also be in the running, is seen as more moderate but has his roots in the LDP's traditional, hardline faction.
Some in Korea expect an improvement in Seoul-Tokyo ties if a government led by the Democratic Party of Japan, Japan's largest opposition party, comes to power. DPJ leader Katsuya Okada is a friend of Korea. But other experts say the DPJ, unlike the Socialist Party, is another conservative force. "The traditional ruling forces within the LDP felt a sense of obligation because of Japan's invasions,¡± said one government official who dealt with Japan for 20 years. ¡°No such sense exists for the right wing of the DPJ or younger members of the LDP." He predicted a succession of Japanese prime ministers who naturally believe Japan should become a ¡°normal country" and shed its guilt over the Imperial past.
(englishnews@chosun.com )
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